Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK GDP was surprisingly resilient in Nov-22 as it grew by 0.1% m-o-m, about 0.3pp above forecasts. The World Cup helped, but services trends are broadly less bleak.</li>
<li>Further downward revisions from the national accounts don’t negate existing evidence of excess demand. Delaying GDP falls means inflationary pressures persist for longer.</li>
<li>The BoE will need to squeeze demand more if inflation doesn’t achieve that itself amid second-round effects. More rate hikes and a recession are still coming in 2023.</li>
</ul>


UK GDP was surprisingly resilient in Nov-22 as it grew by 0.1% m-o-m, about 0.3pp above forecasts. The World Cup helped, but services trends are broadly less bleak.
Further downward revisions from the national accounts don’t negate existing evidence of excess demand. Delaying GDP falls means inflationary pressures persist for longer.
The BoE will need to squeeze demand more if inflation doesn’t achieve that itself amid second-round effects. More rate hikes and a recession are still coming in 2023.


UK: Resilient GDP Raises Work for BoE