Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: IP Contracting to 2017 Levels in Mid-19

UK: GDP Rebound Crushes Current Recession Fear

UK: Labour Market Enduring Political Earthquake

UK: Retail Sales Not Damped by Jun-19 Rains

UK Politics: Boris Wins a Need Not to Fail Fast

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li><em>The services PMI exceeded expectations in Jul-19 as it increased by 1.2 to 51.4. That is towards the top of the range achieved since Brexit uncertainty intensified almost a year ago, biasing the survey down in the process.</em></li>
<li><em>Other sectoral PMIs are weaker, but the official GDP data now look likely to avoid the small fall implied here. I expect 0.0% q-o-q in 2Q19 before activity improves in Q3, although a no-deal Brexit could blow the UK off-course beyond that.</em></li>
</ul>


The services PMI exceeded expectations in Jul-19 as it increased by 1.2 to 51.4. That is towards the top of the range achieved since Brexit uncertainty intensified almost a year ago, biasing the survey down in the process.
Other sectoral PMIs are weaker, but the official GDP data now look likely to avoid the small fall implied here. I expect 0.0% q-o-q in 2Q19 before activity improves in Q3, although a no-deal Brexit could blow the UK off-course beyond that.


UK: Jul-19 Surveys Still in Gloomy Ranges