Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK Inflation: Descending Towards a New Trough

UK Inflation: Wile E. Coyote Moment in Mar-20

UK: Disinflation in Apr-20 Confirms Dovish Space

UK Inflation: Dec-19 Disrupted by Complex Seasonal

UK Inflation: Nov-19 Strength Partly Persists

UK Inflation: Oct-19 Surprise Repeats History

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li><em>UK inflation broadly exceeded Consensus expectations in Jan-20, with the CPI rate printing at 1.77% and the RPI at 2.7% (index of 290.6). However, the CPI was only 3bp above my forecast, caused by clothing, while the RPI was precisely in line.</em></li>
<li><em>A small dip remains likely next month, ahead of falls in April that re-test the trough. Beyond that, inflation rates should gradually rise, including on the trimmed services-related metrics where the BoE has dovish concerns.</em></li>
</ul>


UK inflation broadly exceeded Consensus expectations in Jan-20, with the CPI rate printing at 1.77% and the RPI at 2.7% (index of 290.6). However, the CPI was only 3bp above my forecast, caused by clothing, while the RPI was precisely in line.
A small dip remains likely next month, ahead of falls in April that re-test the trough. Beyond that, inflation rates should gradually rise, including on the trimmed services-related metrics where the BoE has dovish concerns.


UK Inflation: Temporary Resurgence in Jan-20