Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK Inflation: Temporary Resurgence in Jan-20

UK Inflation: Descending Towards a New Trough

UK Inflation: Wile E. Coyote Moment in Mar-20

UK Inflation: Nov-19 Strength Partly Persists

UK Inflation: Oct-19 Surprise Repeats History

UK: Labour Market Tighter than BoE Believes

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li><em>UK inflation disappointed expectations in Dec-19 as an early index date drove airfares to undershoot even my below-Consensus forecast. 70% of that difference should unwind in Jan-20 and the seasonal looks set to surprise positively next year.</em></li>
<li><em>Underlying pressures still appear to have troughed, but the backwards-looking MPC can highlight the subdued headline of 1.3% as supporting its dovish detour. I maintain my forecast for a mid-2020 trough at 1.1% after a bounce in Q1.</em></li>
</ul>


UK inflation disappointed expectations in Dec-19 as an early index date drove airfares to undershoot even my below-Consensus forecast. 70% of that difference should unwind in Jan-20 and the seasonal looks set to surprise positively next year.
Underlying pressures still appear to have troughed, but the backwards-looking MPC can highlight the subdued headline of 1.3% as supporting its dovish detour. I maintain my forecast for a mid-2020 trough at 1.1% after a bounce in Q1.


UK Inflation: Dec-19 Disrupted by Complex Seasonal