Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>In March, UK retail disappointed to a shocking extent as food and non-store sales plummeted. This profile is not just a healthy rotation back to pre-covid spending habits.</li>
<li>Inflation demands more spending that isn’t affordable, so volumes get directly crushed while consumers get more cautious about the environment for major purchases. </li>
<li>GDP is at risk of declining in March. We expect zero growth and maintain our below-consensus Q2 forecast for 0.3% q-o-q GDP growth. Inflation hurts real activity. </li>
</ul>


In March, UK retail disappointed to a shocking extent as food and non-store sales plummeted. This profile is not just a healthy rotation back to pre-covid spending habits.
Inflation demands more spending that isn’t affordable, so volumes get directly crushed while consumers get more cautious about the environment for major purchases. 
GDP is at risk of declining in March. We expect zero growth and maintain our below-consensus Q2 forecast for 0.3% q-o-q GDP growth. Inflation hurts real activity. 


UK: Crushed Retail Will Hurt GDP