Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Policy Rates Feeling for a Higher Neutral

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Retail sales disappointed by declining again in Feb-22, despite clothing sales surging back towards pre-covid levels. Inflation squeezed out a higher value of spending.</li>
<li>Consumers will need to prioritise essentials while avoiding expensive discretionary commitments. Confidence in the climate for major purchases has already collapsed.</li>
<li>Real incomes face severe erosion in 2022, and we still expect consumers to reflect that hit in volumes again rather than raising nominal consumption growth.</li>
</ul>


Retail sales disappointed by declining again in Feb-22, despite clothing sales surging back towards pre-covid levels. Inflation squeezed out a higher value of spending.
Consumers will need to prioritise essentials while avoiding expensive discretionary commitments. Confidence in the climate for major purchases has already collapsed.
Real incomes face severe erosion in 2022, and we still expect consumers to reflect that hit in volumes again rather than raising nominal consumption growth.


UK: Retail Durables Knocked Out by Costs