Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Reprofiled GDP Doesn’t Create Dovish Slack

UK: Inaugural Flash PMI Is Messy in Nov-19

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

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<li><em>UK GDP growth marginally disappointed at 0.04% m-o-m in Oct-19 (0.1% expected). A 2.3% m-o-m crash in construction more than accounted for the weakness, but it is highly prone to moderating revisions and positive payback.</em></li>
<li><em>Underlying growth was slightly stronger than I expected, but looks likely to be dominated at the headline level by construction. I have lowered my forecast for 4Q19 GDP growth to 0.1% q-o-q. A growth rate rebound remains likely in 2020.</em></li>
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UK GDP growth marginally disappointed at 0.04% m-o-m in Oct-19 (0.1% expected). A 2.3% m-o-m crash in construction more than accounted for the weakness, but it is highly prone to moderating revisions and positive payback.
Underlying growth was slightly stronger than I expected, but looks likely to be dominated at the headline level by construction. I have lowered my forecast for 4Q19 GDP growth to 0.1% q-o-q. A growth rate rebound remains likely in 2020.


UK: Construction Crash Stalls Oct-19 GDP