Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK Inflation: Oct-19 Surprise Repeats History

UK: Inaugural Flash PMI Is Messy in Nov-19

UK: IP Bounce Around Gloomy Levels in Oct-19

BoE: Unwinding the Internal Inconsistency

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li><em>UK GDP growth rebounded by 0.3% q-o-q in 3Q19. That was slightly softer than expected, mainly owing to a revision and unfavourable rounding. Services output remains much healthier than the uncertainty-biased surveys suggest.</em></li>
<li><em>The BoE is concerned about the 2019 slowdown, but the average monthly rate is only a few basis points down on 2018. It exaggerates the downturn in its estimates by assuming the tendency for upward revisions only applies to previous years.</em></li>
</ul>


UK GDP growth rebounded by 0.3% q-o-q in 3Q19. That was slightly softer than expected, mainly owing to a revision and unfavourable rounding. Services output remains much healthier than the uncertainty-biased surveys suggest.
The BoE is concerned about the 2019 slowdown, but the average monthly rate is only a few basis points down on 2018. It exaggerates the downturn in its estimates by assuming the tendency for upward revisions only applies to previous years.


UK: GDP Slowdown Exaggerated by BoE