Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

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Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Equity Bottom-Up

August numbers show a spike in container volumes on key routes, but average achieved freight rates were still just so-so (but improving compared to Q2 2020).
Forward data from the Port of Los Angeles (PoLA) shows strength in rest of September and into the October peak season. Carriers are also benefitting from relatively low fuel prices. 
Conclusions: We still have not seen the strong bump in rates reported by the mainstream financial media, but container pricing is better than in Q2 and volumes have clearly firmed and fuel prices are reasonable -- all positives for the carriers. But the biggest gains -- in both carrier profitability and share prices -- are likely already behind us.

August numbers show a spike in container volumes on key routes, but average achieved freight rates were still just so-so (but improving compared to Q2 2020).
Forward data from the Port of Los Angeles (PoLA) shows strength in rest of September and into the October peak season. Carriers are also benefitting from relatively low fuel prices. 
Conclusions: We still have not seen the strong bump in rates reported by the mainstream financial media, but container pricing is better than in Q2 and volumes have clearly firmed and fuel prices are reasonable -- all positives for the carriers. But the biggest gains -- in both carrier profitability and share prices -- are likely already behind us. 

TRACKING TRAFFIC: Containers & Air Cargo: August Volumes Jump | New PoLA Data Firm Through October

China Merchants Port

TRACKING TRAFFIC: Containers & Air Cargo: August Volumes Jump | New PoLA Data Firm Through October