Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Containers & Air Cargo: October Rates Pop | LA Volumes Strong | Box Shortage?

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Three Suggested Pair Trades in Travel, Express & Shipping

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Containers & Air Cargo: Volumes, Rates & Bunker All Firmer | Valuations Get Weird

TRACKING TRAFFIC: Containers & Air Cargo: August Volumes Jump | New PoLA Data Firm Through October

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Containers & Air Cargo: No, Virginia, Container Rates Are NOT Spiking!

Evergreen Marine (2603:TT) Posts Best Quarterly Earnings in Years, Mainly on Lower Fuel Costs

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Containers & Air Cargo: July Volume & Rates Better | Q2 Profits Soar on Costs

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Equity Bottom-Up

Our research suggests average container rates rose by 6% in September, boosted by improved Transpacific volumes. While inbound to US demand appears strong through October, estimates from the Port of LA suggest early November will see a modest YoY decline in throughput. 
Bunker (ship fuel) prices remain below year-ago levels and carrier profitability in Q3 (and early Q4) likely remains high compared to 2019. Germany's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hapag-lloyd-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21649:1" rel="noopener">Hapag-Lloyd AG (HLAG GR)</a> lifted full-year guidance this week, reflecting confidence in near-term market conditions. 
After almost tripling earlier in 2020 on a combination of strong demand and limited capacity, it appears air cargo pricing for key Asian carriers has moderated compared versus peak levels in Q2. 
While current conditions appear buoyant, we believe the sharpest YoY improvements in profitability for container carriers (and air cargo) are probably already behind us.

Our research suggests average container rates rose by 6% in September, boosted by improved Transpacific volumes. While inbound to US demand appears strong through October, estimates from the Port of LA suggest early November will see a modest YoY decline in throughput. 
Bunker (ship fuel) prices remain below year-ago levels and carrier profitability in Q3 (and early Q4) likely remains high compared to 2019. Germany's Hapag-Lloyd AG (HLAG GR) lifted full-year guidance this week, reflecting confidence in near-term market conditions. 
After almost tripling earlier in 2020 on a combination of strong demand and limited capacity, it appears air cargo pricing for key Asian carriers has moderated compared versus peak levels in Q2. 
While current conditions appear buoyant, we believe the sharpest YoY improvements in profitability for container carriers (and air cargo) are probably already behind us. 

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Containers & Air Cargo: Box Rates Firm | LA Down in Nov? | Air Cargo Pricing Eases

Mitsui O.S.K. Lines

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Containers & Air Cargo: Box Rates Firm | LA Down in Nov? | Air Cargo Pricing Eases