Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

TRACKING TRAFFIC's Travel Tracker Dashboard (October 2): Air Activity Improves | Room Rates Stagnate

China's 'Golden Week': Headline Tourism Numbers Hardly Shine

Is Chinese Tourism Really a 'Growth' Industry?

Can Trip.com Meet (Or Beat) Its Own Downbeat Revenue Guidance? Q220 Earnings Preview

Thailand's Tourism Dilemma - Buy Retailers, Hospitals, and Select Hotels

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: Outbound Still Stagnant | Domestic Rebound Suggests Wary Consumer

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Equity Bottom-Up

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Outbound green shoots? In August, Chinese arrivals to Macau tripled MoM, but they remain far below year-ago levels. A potential re-opening to certain types of international tourism in Thailand is positive, but investors still have to look hard to see signs of a recovery in outbound travel.
Domestic activity getting closer to normal(-ish): Domestic travel activity continued to improve gradually in August, as shown in traffic figures reported by the large state-owned airlines and two prominent Low Cost Carriers (LCCs). We believe domestic traffic could return to growth in Q420.
Recent results &amp; guidance still discouraging: Q220 earnings results and Q320 revenue guidance from OTAs Trip.com and Tongcheng-ELong were unimpressive, in our view. Trip.com's downbeat guidance partly reflects that company's relatively high exposure to moribund outbound travel.
Conclusions: We believe domestic-focused companies will continue to outperform those with high exposure to outbound travel. While eventual easing of restrictions on cross-border travel will give stocks like Trip.com and Air China a chance to shine, we don't believe that time is now.


Outbound green shoots? In August, Chinese arrivals to Macau tripled MoM, but they remain far below year-ago levels. A potential re-opening to certain types of international tourism in Thailand is positive, but investors still have to look hard to see signs of a recovery in outbound travel.
Domestic activity getting closer to normal(-ish): Domestic travel activity continued to improve gradually in August, as shown in traffic figures reported by the large state-owned airlines and two prominent Low Cost Carriers (LCCs). We believe domestic traffic could return to growth in Q420.
Recent results &amp; guidance still discouraging: Q220 earnings results and Q320 revenue guidance from OTAs Trip.com and Tongcheng-ELong were unimpressive, in our view. Trip.com's downbeat guidance partly reflects that company's relatively high exposure to moribund outbound travel.
Conclusions: We believe domestic-focused companies will continue to outperform those with high exposure to outbound travel. While eventual easing of restrictions on cross-border travel will give stocks like Trip.com and Air China a chance to shine, we don't believe that time is now. 

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: Outbound 'Green Shoots'? | Domestic Gets Closer to Normal

Huazhu Group

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: Outbound 'Green Shoots'? | Domestic Gets Closer to Normal