Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Economy/ Billionaires/ P2P Crackdown/ Digital Yuan/ US-China

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: Outbound: Comatose | Domestic: Fewer, Shorter Trips = New Normal?

TRACKING TRAFFIC's Travel Tracker Dashboard (October 30): Air Traffic Ex-Mainland China Firms

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: Outbound Still Stagnant | Domestic Rebound Suggests Wary Consumer

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: Outbound 'Green Shoots'? | Domestic Gets Closer to Normal

Can Trip.com Meet (Or Beat) Its Own Downbeat Revenue Guidance? Q220 Earnings Preview

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Thailand's Tourism Dilemma - Buy Retailers, Hospitals, and Select Hotels

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

China Consumer services / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Before Covid19 shut down outbound Chinese tourism in 2020, there were the mass protests in Hong Kong, which sharply reduced Mainland visits to its largest outbound destination in 2019.Before the Hong Kong protests, there was a drowning incident in Thailand in 2018 that killed dozens of Chinese visitors and sharply reduced travel to another top outbound destination. And before the Phuket accident came political disputes with Taiwan, Korea, and Japan, all of which temporarily reduced Chinese tourist visits to these important regional destinations. Taken together, these disruptions have undermined outbound Chinese travel demand and added to volatility.And what about Chinese domestic travel demand?Pre-Covid19, domestic tourism growth was flagging, and though it's been less volatile than outbound demand, Chinese domestic travel certainly has not been immune to demand shocks either (viruses, the partial displacement of air travel by high speed rail, etc.).We simply don't think investing in the growth of Chinese tourism is the "no-brainer" that many market participants seem to think it is. Between moderating growth rates and a series of external demand shocks, there have been few periods of sustained strong (10%+) demand growth in recent years. In our view, Chinese tourism can no longer be viewed as a growth industry.

Before Covid19 shut down outbound Chinese tourism in 2020, there were the mass protests in Hong Kong, which sharply reduced Mainland visits to its largest outbound destination in 2019.Before the Hong Kong protests, there was a drowning incident in Thailand in 2018 that killed dozens of Chinese visitors and sharply reduced travel to another top outbound destination. And before the Phuket accident came political disputes with Taiwan, Korea, and Japan, all of which temporarily reduced Chinese tourist visits to these important regional destinations. Taken together, these disruptions have undermined outbound Chinese travel demand and added to volatility.And what about Chinese domestic travel demand?Pre-Covid19, domestic tourism growth was flagging, and though it's been less volatile than outbound demand, Chinese domestic travel certainly has not been immune to demand shocks either (viruses, the partial displacement of air travel by high speed rail, etc.).We simply don't think investing in the growth of Chinese tourism is the "no-brainer" that many market participants seem to think it is. Between moderating growth rates and a series of external demand shocks, there have been few periods of sustained strong (10%+) demand growth in recent years. In our view, Chinese tourism can no longer be viewed as a growth industry.  

Is Chinese Tourism Really a 'Growth' Industry?