Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: Outbound: Comatose | Domestic: Fewer, Shorter Trips = New Normal?

TRACKING TRAFFIC's Travel Tracker Dashboard (October 30): Air Traffic Ex-Mainland China Firms

Trip.com Rallies 14% on Vaccine News. But What's the 'Normal' We'll Return To in 2021?

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: Outbound 'Green Shoots'? | Domestic Gets Closer to Normal

In Effort to De-List from NASDAQ, Trip.com Unlikely to Find Many Eager Buyers

Can Trip.com Meet (Or Beat) Its Own Downbeat Revenue Guidance? Q220 Earnings Preview

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Thailand's Tourism Dilemma - Buy Retailers, Hospitals, and Select Hotels

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Equity Bottom-Up

Chinese media reports Chinese tourism activity during the long Golden Week + National Day holiday period declined by about 21% YoY to 637 mn person-visits. Spending on tourism during the period reportedly fell by 28% YoY to 466 bn RMB. 
Some observers are suggesting these numbers show a strong continued recovery in tourism demand since activity collapsed in Q1 this year due to the Covid19 pandemic.
But we disagree.
In our view, the headline 2020 Golden Week+ numbers we have seen so far are not as strong as we would have expected, given a number of factors that actually should have flattered this year's overall activity and spending numbers. 
A closer analysis of the numbers actually suggests tepid tourism demand, in our opinion, and we do not believe the recovery has gained momentum in October.

Chinese media reports Chinese tourism activity during the long Golden Week + National Day holiday period declined by about 21% YoY to 637 mn person-visits. Spending on tourism during the period reportedly fell by 28% YoY to 466 bn RMB. 
Some observers are suggesting these numbers show a strong continued recovery in tourism demand since activity collapsed in Q1 this year due to the Covid19 pandemic.
But we disagree.
In our view, the headline 2020 Golden Week+ numbers we have seen so far are not as strong as we would have expected, given a number of factors that actually should have flattered this year's overall activity and spending numbers. 
A closer analysis of the numbers actually suggests tepid tourism demand, in our opinion, and we do not believe the recovery has gained momentum in October.  

China's 'Golden Week': Headline Tourism Numbers Hardly Shine