Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Securities analyst covering electronics, precision equipment & robotics, engineering, construction, transport and other sectors for more than 25 years in Japan and 3 years in Korea. Permanent resident of Japan.

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Tokyo Electron (8035): Semiconductor Supply Chain at Risk of a Downturn

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Caught Out by a Decline in Sales

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Downturn Discounted but Maybe Not Its Duration

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Delays and Uncertainty

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tokyo Electron has announced a new Medium-term Plan that shows what the company could probably do if the next five years were as good as the last five years.</li>
<li>That seems unlikely. The plan ignores rising interest rates, the risk of recession, political risk, and the possibility of demand from South Korea, Taiwan and China maxing out. </li>
<li>It looks like FY Mar-23 guidance is intended to be conservative.  That cannot be take for granted.</li>
</ul>


Tokyo Electron has announced a new Medium-term Plan that shows what the company could probably do if the next five years were as good as the last five years.
That seems unlikely. The plan ignores rising interest rates, the risk of recession, political risk, and the possibility of demand from South Korea, Taiwan and China maxing out. 
It looks like FY Mar-23 guidance is intended to be conservative.  That cannot be take for granted.


Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): New Medium-Term Plan Vs. Reality