Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Securities analyst covering electronics, precision equipment & robotics, engineering, construction, transport and other sectors for more than 25 years in Japan and 3 years in Korea. Permanent resident of Japan.

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): New Medium-Term Plan Vs. Reality

Tokyo Electron (8035): Semiconductor Supply Chain at Risk of a Downturn

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): As Good as It Gets

TEL – Great Results but Some Warning Signs

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As of February, TEL expected the global wafer fab equipment market to grow by nearly 20% in calendar 2022. This seems increasingly unlikely.</li>
<li>Japanese data shows equipment demand leveling off while the economic situation deteriorates and semiconductor capacity expansion projects are delayed.</li>
<li>The shares have dropped 22% since the beginning of January and are now selling at 20x management's EPS guidance for FY Mar-22. Not cheap in historical terms.</li>
</ul>


As of February, TEL expected the global wafer fab equipment market to grow by nearly 20% in calendar 2022. This seems increasingly unlikely.
Japanese data shows equipment demand leveling off while the economic situation deteriorates and semiconductor capacity expansion projects are delayed.
The shares have dropped 22% since the beginning of January and are now selling at 20x management's EPS guidance for FY Mar-22. Not cheap in historical terms.


Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Delays and Uncertainty