Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): New Medium-Term Plan Vs. Reality

Tokyo Electron (8035): Semiconductor Supply Chain at Risk of a Downturn

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Caught Out by a Decline in Sales

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Delays and Uncertainty

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): As Good as It Gets

TEL – Great Results but Some Warning Signs

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TEL generated ¥169bn in OP in 4Q, well above consensus at ¥150bn and even our ¥160bn estimate. </li>
<li>The issue is that this was on ¥565bn in revenue, well above ourselves and consensus, due to ramping R&amp;D and depreciation expenses. </li>
<li>Those expenses also meant that guidance of ¥716bn in OP was just barely above consensus at ¥692bn.</li>
</ul>


TEL generated ¥169bn in OP in 4Q, well above consensus at ¥150bn and even our ¥160bn estimate. 
The issue is that this was on ¥565bn in revenue, well above ourselves and consensus, due to ramping R&amp;D and depreciation expenses. 
Those expenses also meant that guidance of ¥716bn in OP was just barely above consensus at ¥692bn.


Tokyo Electron

TEL – Margin Disappointment