ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

In Equity Sales and Research for more than 25 years covering Asian markets. Possesses in-depth knowledge of a wide range of companies, economies, and markets in Asia. Over his career, he has specialised in HK/China and ASEAN markets at various different Investment Banks, most recently heading equities in Indonesia for Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Jakarta for more than three years. Whilst in Jakarta, he produced a well-read daily and weekly product on the Indonesian market, which included company visits, as well as political, economic and sector commentary. A former racing skier, who enjoys ultra-marathons and surfing in his spare time.

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

Multiple Countries / Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>The week that was in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a> is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.</p>
<p>We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  </p>
</div><h3>Let's get Digital</h3><p>The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) announced last week that it will award a full digital bank license to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> and to a consortium including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-telecommunications" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20:1" rel="noopener">Singtel (ST SP)</a> in a move to liberalize the local banking industry. Like traditional banks, these players will provide retail customers with services such as opening accounts, deposits, as well as issuing debit and credit cards, The difference being that digital banks will not have a physical presence and all banking services will be done online. More below the fold...</p><h3>Equity Bottom Up</h3><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-negara-indonesia-persero-bbni-ij-still-more-pain-to-come" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ) - Still More Pain to Come</a>, CrossASEAN insight provider<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)</a> after a call with management revealing some continuing risks on the horizon.</p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gojek-and-grab-merger-wishful-thinking" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Gojek and Grab Merger Wishful Thinking?</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> zeros in on the resurgence of rumors of a merger between<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a> and<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Grab (0967655D SP)</a>, which looks like wishful thinking from a Grab perspective, and indeed from Softbank's major shareholder. </p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/prodia-widyahusada-prda-ij-testing-times-a-positive" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ) - Testing Times a Positive</a>, CrossASEAN insight provider<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> returns to look at Indonesian diagnostics leader <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prodia-widyahusada" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ),</a> after its positive 3Q2020 results.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-corona-crisis-december-the-looming-shadow-of-myanmar" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Thai Corona Crisis (December): The Looming Shadow of Myanmar</a>,  Thai guru<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> revisits the pandemic situation in Thailand after a number of infected Burmese workers illegally crossed into Thailand without proper health checks. </p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-danamon-profit-transformation-not-recognized" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Bank Danamon – Profit Transformation Not Recognized</a>, banking specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Daniel Tabbush</a> reports back on<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-danamon-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Bank Danamon Indonesia (BDMN IJ)</a>'s Q32020 results. He sees that BDMN having the potential to see a significant rebound in ROA. </p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/silicon-stories-n-humanica-and-rs-tout-their-online-credentials" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Silicon Stories N: Humanica and RS Tout Their Online Credentials</a>, Thai guru<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> reports back after visiting two companies that clearly benefit from the remote economy popularized by the pandemic including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/humanica-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26151:1" rel="noopener">Humanica PCL (HUMAN TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rs-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18114:1" rel="noopener">RS PCL (RS TB)</a>.</p><p>In Malaysia<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cimb-group-reserve-cover-light-still" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> CIMB Group – Reserve Cover Light Still</a>, banking specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-j-monaco" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Thomas J. Monaco</a> discusses 3Q2020  results from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimb-group-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB MK)</a> and highlights two important trends.</p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kerry-express-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Kerry Express IPO: Valuation Insights</a>, IPO specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/arun-george" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Arun George</a> returns to look at<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-express-thailand" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB)</a> valuations after providing a view on the company's 3Q20 results. Kerry Express remains well-placed to ride an eventual recovery in Thai consumer confidence. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-express-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29253:1" rel="noopener"></a></p><div>
<p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tfg-solid-outlook-though-it-should-retreat-from-3q20-peak" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> TFG: Solid Outlook, Though It Should Retreat from 3Q20 Peak</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group</a> report back after the<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-foods-group-public-company-limited" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Thai Foods Group Public Company (TFG TB)</a> analyst meeting. </p>
<p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pttep-target-to-achieve-6-cagr-sales-growth-in-2021-25" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> PTTEP: Target to Achieve 6% CAGR Sales Growth in 2021-25</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ptt-exploration-and-production-public-company-limited" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> PTT E&amp;P (PTTEP TB)</a>, which is targeting petroleum sales growth at 6% CAGR in next 5 years. The company rolled out its 5-year investment plan allocating US$23.6bn towards long-term growth.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gunkul-power-business-to-drive-2021-earnings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45996" rel="noopener">GUNKUL: Power Business to Drive 2021 Earnings</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group</a> returns to look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gunkul-engineering-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15272:1" rel="noopener">Gunkul Engineering (GUNKUL TB)</a> post its analyst briefing. </p>
<p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ace-better-gross-margin-but-we-stay-on-hold" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> ACE: Better Gross Margin but We Stay on HOLD</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> maintains a "HOLD" son <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/absolute-clean-energy-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29155:1" rel="noopener">Absolute Clean Energy PCL (ACE TB)</a>. He thinks ACE deserves to trade at a premium to Thai Utilities due to its pronounced growth prospects and targets a 2021E PE of 23.2x. </p>
<p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/teamg-value-play-in-consulting-to-benefit-from-government-stimulus" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> TEAMG: Value Play in Consulting to Benefit from Government Stimulus,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> maintains a BUY recommendation on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/team-consulting-engineering-and-management-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29175:1" rel="noopener">TEAM Consulting Engineering and Management (TEAMG TB)</a> with an unchanged target price of Bt2.81, implying an upside of 29% from the current share price.</p>
</div><h3>Credit Insights</h3><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/abm-investama-earnings-flash-9m-fy-2020-results-lucror-analytics" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> ABM Investama - Earnings Flash - 9M FY 2020 Results - Lucror Analytics</a>, credit specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/trung-nguyen" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Trung Nguyen</a> provides a bird's eye view on<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abm-investama-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> ABM Investama (ABMM IJ)</a>. </p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/morning-views-asia-pan-brothers-soechi-lines" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Morning Views Asia: Pan Brothers, Soechi Lines</a>, our friends<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/lucror-analytics" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Lucror Analytics</a> zero in on<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-brothers-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Pan Brothers (PBRX IJ)</a>'s plan issue up to USD 350 mn of 5-Year Notes.  </p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/morning-views-asia-agung-podomoro-land-guangzhou-r-f-properties-indika-energy-jingrui-holdings" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Morning Views Asia: Agung Podomoro Land, Guangzhou R&amp;F Properties, Indika Energy, Jingrui Holdings</a>, credit specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/trung-nguyen" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Trung Nguyen</a> provides an initial view on<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agung-podomoro-land-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Agung Podomoro Land (APLN IJ)</a> and<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indika-energy-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Indika Energy (INDY IJ)</a> Q32020 results.</p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indika-energy-tear-sheet-lucror-analytics-0543e70b-5604-4676-8d27-19456ce1bf12" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Indika Energy - Tear Sheet - Lucror Analytics</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/trung-nguyen" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Trung Nguyen</a> provides a bird's eye view of<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indika-energy-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Indika Energy (INDY IJ)</a>.  </p>


The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  
Let's get DigitalThe Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) announced last week that it will award a full digital bank license to Sea Ltd (SE US) and to a consortium including Grab (0967655D SP) and Singtel (ST SP) in a move to liberalize the local banking industry. Like traditional banks, these players will provide retail customers with services such as opening accounts, deposits, as well as issuing debit and credit cards, The difference being that digital banks will not have a physical presence and all banking services will be done online. More below the fold...Equity Bottom UpIn Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ) - Still More Pain to Come, CrossASEAN insight provider Angus Mackintosh revisits Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ) after a call with management revealing some continuing risks on the horizon.In Gojek and Grab Merger Wishful Thinking?, Angus Mackintosh zeros in on the resurgence of rumors of a merger between Gojek (1379371D IJ) and Grab (0967655D SP), which looks like wishful thinking from a Grab perspective, and indeed from Softbank's major shareholder. In Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ) - Testing Times a Positive, CrossASEAN insight provider Angus Mackintosh returns to look at Indonesian diagnostics leader Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ), after its positive 3Q2020 results.In Thai Corona Crisis (December): The Looming Shadow of Myanmar,  Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA revisits the pandemic situation in Thailand after a number of infected Burmese workers illegally crossed into Thailand without proper health checks. In Bank Danamon – Profit Transformation Not Recognized, banking specialist Daniel Tabbush reports back on Bank Danamon Indonesia (BDMN IJ)'s Q32020 results. He sees that BDMN having the potential to see a significant rebound in ROA. In Silicon Stories N: Humanica and RS Tout Their Online Credentials, Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA reports back after visiting two companies that clearly benefit from the remote economy popularized by the pandemic including Humanica PCL (HUMAN TB) and RS PCL (RS TB).In Malaysia CIMB Group – Reserve Cover Light Still, banking specialist Thomas J. Monaco discusses 3Q2020  results from CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB MK) and highlights two important trends.In Kerry Express IPO: Valuation Insights, IPO specialist Arun George returns to look at Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB) valuations after providing a view on the company's 3Q20 results. Kerry Express remains well-placed to ride an eventual recovery in Thai consumer confidence. 
In TFG: Solid Outlook, Though It Should Retreat from 3Q20 Peak, Country Group report back after the Thai Foods Group Public Company (TFG TB) analyst meeting. 
In PTTEP: Target to Achieve 6% CAGR Sales Growth in 2021-25, Country Group revisits  PTT E&amp;P (PTTEP TB), which is targeting petroleum sales growth at 6% CAGR in next 5 years. The company rolled out its 5-year investment plan allocating US$23.6bn towards long-term growth.
In GUNKUL: Power Business to Drive 2021 Earnings, Country Group returns to look at Gunkul Engineering (GUNKUL TB) post its analyst briefing. 
In ACE: Better Gross Margin but We Stay on HOLD, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA maintains a "HOLD" son Absolute Clean Energy PCL (ACE TB). He thinks ACE deserves to trade at a premium to Thai Utilities due to its pronounced growth prospects and targets a 2021E PE of 23.2x. 
In TEAMG: Value Play in Consulting to Benefit from Government Stimulus,Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA maintains a BUY recommendation on TEAM Consulting Engineering and Management (TEAMG TB) with an unchanged target price of Bt2.81, implying an upside of 29% from the current share price.
Credit InsightsIn ABM Investama - Earnings Flash - 9M FY 2020 Results - Lucror Analytics, credit specialist Trung Nguyen provides a bird's eye view on ABM Investama (ABMM IJ). In Morning Views Asia: Pan Brothers, Soechi Lines, our friends Lucror Analytics zero in on Pan Brothers (PBRX IJ)'s plan issue up to USD 350 mn of 5-Year Notes.  In Morning Views Asia: Agung Podomoro Land, Guangzhou R&amp;F Properties, Indika Energy, Jingrui Holdings, credit specialist Trung Nguyen provides an initial view on Agung Podomoro Land (APLN IJ) and Indika Energy (INDY IJ) Q32020 results.In Indika Energy - Tear Sheet - Lucror Analytics, Trung Nguyen provides a bird's eye view of Indika Energy (INDY IJ).  

TEAM Consulting Engineering and Management (TEAMG TB)

TEAM Consulting Engineering and Management

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Let's Get Digital, BNI's Pains, and Diagnostic Labs