Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Nicholas Chia

Centennial Asia Advisors deliver timely and accurate economic and political analysis to investors, focused on anticipating key turning points that affect the client’s interests in the Asia-Pacific region. Clients include public agencies and central banks, as well as fund managers and investment banks. The company draws strength from its flexibility to tailor products to fit client’s specific interests. It provides detailed macro-economic forecasts, scenario analysis and timely assessments of how specific major economic and political developments may affect a client’s areas of interest. At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way.

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Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul style="list-style-type: square;">
<li>With nominations for the presidency beginning in October, the electoral season is intensifying.</li>
<li>The field is crowded, as the table below shows, but Sara Duterte appears to be leading the opinion polls currently, helped by her family name. Manila Mayor Isko Moreno and Ferdinand Marcos Jr are the other candidates to watch for.  The rest of the mooted candidates are unlikely to make much headway in the political arena, where personalities and familial (and familiar) branding trump concrete party allegiance and policy platforms.</li>
<li>Prospective candidates have a week to file their certificates for candidacy from 1st October. But candidates can still drop out in favour of a replacement by 15th November, which suggests more twists and turns are likely. President Duterte himself was a replacement candidate who had repeatedly tamped down suggestions of running for the presidency in 2016.</li>
<li>Our view is that Sara Duterte will throw her hat into the ring, primarily to protect her father from legal woes, given the controversial war on drugs. She could still cut a deal with Marcos Jr, but this hinges on the latter emerging tops come May 2022, a calculation that is far from assured, given the historical baggage of the Marcos family.</li>
<li>At the heart of the issue, is whether the next President will defer to competent economic managers where matters of public finance are concerned. Public coffers have been decimated by the pandemic and the threat of sovereign downgrades is increasingly salient in the absence of further measures to reverse the slide in collections.</li>
</ul><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 169.85pt;">Polling data/presidential candidates</td>
<td colspan="3" style="width: 6.0cm;">Pulse Asia</td>
<td style="width: 55.4pt;">OCTA</td>
<td style="width: 55.45pt;">RPMDinc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 169.85pt;">Candidates</td>
<td style="width: 2.0cm;">Nov 20</td>
<td style="width: 2.0cm;">Feb 21</td>
<td style="width: 2.0cm;">Jun 21</td>
<td style="width: 55.4pt;">Jul 21</td>
<td style="width: 55.45pt;">Aug 21</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 169.85pt;">Sara Duterte</td>
<td style="width: 2.0cm;">26%</td>
<td style="width: 2.0cm;">27%</td>
<td style="width: 2.0cm;">28%</td>
<td style="width: 55.4pt;">28%</td>
<td style="width: 55.45pt;">32.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 169.85pt;">Isko Moreno</td>
<td style="width: 2.0cm;">12%</td>
<td style="width: 2.0cm;">12%</td>
<td style="width: 2.0cm;">14%</td>
<td style="width: 55.4pt;">11%</td>
<td style="width: 55.45pt;">14.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 169.85pt;">Emmanuel Pacquiao</td>
<td style="width: 2.0cm;">10%</td>
<td style="width: 2.0cm;">11%</td>
<td style="width: 2.0cm;">8%</td>
<td style="width: 55.4pt;">10%</td>
<td style="width: 55.45pt;">12.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 169.85pt;">Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr</td>
<td style="width: 2.0cm;">14%</td>
<td style="width: 2.0cm;">13%</td>
<td style="width: 2.0cm;">13%</td>
<td style="width: 55.4pt;">13%</td>
<td style="width: 55.45pt;">11.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 169.85pt;">Grace Poe</td>
<td style="width: 2.0cm;">14%</td>
<td style="width: 2.0cm;">12%</td>
<td style="width: 2.0cm;">10%</td>
<td style="width: 55.4pt;">10%</td>
<td style="width: 55.45pt;">7.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 169.85pt;">Leni Robredo</td>
<td style="width: 2.0cm;">8%</td>
<td style="width: 2.0cm;">7%</td>
<td style="width: 2.0cm;">6%</td>
<td style="width: 55.4pt;">5%</td>
<td style="width: 55.45pt;">6.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 169.85pt;">Christopher Lawrence "Bong" Go</td>
<td style="width: 2.0cm;">4%</td>
<td style="width: 2.0cm;">3%</td>
<td style="width: 2.0cm;">3%</td>
<td style="width: 55.4pt;">4%</td>
<td style="width: 55.45pt;">4.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 169.85pt;">Alan Peter Cayetano</td>
<td style="width: 2.0cm;">3%</td>
<td style="width: 2.0cm;">2%</td>
<td style="width: 2.0cm;">2%</td>
<td style="width: 55.4pt;">5%</td>
<td style="width: 55.45pt;">3.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 169.85pt;">Panfilo "Ping" Lacson</td>
<td style="width: 2.0cm;">4%</td>
<td style="width: 2.0cm;">-</td>
<td style="width: 2.0cm;">4%</td>
<td style="width: 55.4pt;">2%</td>
<td style="width: 55.45pt;">3.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>


With nominations for the presidency beginning in October, the electoral season is intensifying.
The field is crowded, as the table below shows, but Sara Duterte appears to be leading the opinion polls currently, helped by her family name. Manila Mayor Isko Moreno and Ferdinand Marcos Jr are the other candidates to watch for.  The rest of the mooted candidates are unlikely to make much headway in the political arena, where personalities and familial (and familiar) branding trump concrete party allegiance and policy platforms.
Prospective candidates have a week to file their certificates for candidacy from 1st October. But candidates can still drop out in favour of a replacement by 15th November, which suggests more twists and turns are likely. President Duterte himself was a replacement candidate who had repeatedly tamped down suggestions of running for the presidency in 2016.
Our view is that Sara Duterte will throw her hat into the ring, primarily to protect her father from legal woes, given the controversial war on drugs. She could still cut a deal with Marcos Jr, but this hinges on the latter emerging tops come May 2022, a calculation that is far from assured, given the historical baggage of the Marcos family.
At the heart of the issue, is whether the next President will defer to competent economic managers where matters of public finance are concerned. Public coffers have been decimated by the pandemic and the threat of sovereign downgrades is increasingly salient in the absence of further measures to reverse the slide in collections.


Polling data/presidential candidates
Pulse Asia
OCTA
RPMDinc


Candidates
Nov 20
Feb 21
Jun 21
Jul 21
Aug 21


Sara Duterte
26%
27%
28%
28%
32.3%


Isko Moreno
12%
12%
14%
11%
14.2%


Emmanuel Pacquiao
10%
11%
8%
10%
12.0%


Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr
14%
13%
13%
13%
11.2%


Grace Poe
14%
12%
10%
10%
7.6%


Leni Robredo
8%
7%
6%
5%
6.5%


Christopher Lawrence "Bong" Go
4%
3%
3%
4%
4.7%


Alan Peter Cayetano
3%
2%
2%
5%
3.5%


Panfilo "Ping" Lacson
4%
-
4%
2%
3.4%



The Philippines: Preview of the 2022 Presidential Elections