Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Nicholas Chia

Centennial Asia Advisors deliver timely and accurate economic and political analysis to investors, focused on anticipating key turning points that affect the client’s interests in the Asia-Pacific region. Clients include public agencies and central banks, as well as fund managers and investment banks. The company draws strength from its flexibility to tailor products to fit client’s specific interests. It provides detailed macro-economic forecasts, scenario analysis and timely assessments of how specific major economic and political developments may affect a client’s areas of interest. At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way.

Economist

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The Philippines: Scenarios for 2022 Presidential Elections

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Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr has thrown his hat into the ring, as we expected, citing the need for a unifying leadership in the Philippines' post-pandemic future which can be construed as a subtle broadside against the incumbent administration. Overtures have been extended to the Duterte camp, before the outgoing Chief Executive renounced his bid for the Vice Presidency.</li>
<li>VP Leni Robredo has also launched her candidacy for the presidency, framing the contest as a battle between pro-democratic and authoritarian forces. Barring any sea change, we do not expect the opposition to make any headway in the presidential (or legislative) elections.</li>
<li>Sara failed to file her certificate of candidacy by the 8th October deadline. There are 2 reasons why Sara Duterte could sit this election out. She is not in the best of health, and the elder Duterte's poor health will most certainly cast greater scrutiny over Sara's candidacy. The other calculation is that her candidacy risks splitting the vote and delivering a victory to Moreno or Pacquiao. More twists and turns are likely, as candidates can drop out and be replaced till mid-November.</li>
<li>In the interim, the political dynamic is exceedingly fluid. Marcos is the front-runner, <em>for now</em>, possessing ample name recognition, cognisant of the importance of social media and offering a compelling alternative moving forward. On the other hand, Isko Moreno's big tent campaign could backfire as he risks repeating Grace Poe's mistake in her botched run for the 2016 presidential elections. </li>
</ul>


Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr has thrown his hat into the ring, as we expected, citing the need for a unifying leadership in the Philippines' post-pandemic future which can be construed as a subtle broadside against the incumbent administration. Overtures have been extended to the Duterte camp, before the outgoing Chief Executive renounced his bid for the Vice Presidency.
VP Leni Robredo has also launched her candidacy for the presidency, framing the contest as a battle between pro-democratic and authoritarian forces. Barring any sea change, we do not expect the opposition to make any headway in the presidential (or legislative) elections.
Sara failed to file her certificate of candidacy by the 8th October deadline. There are 2 reasons why Sara Duterte could sit this election out. She is not in the best of health, and the elder Duterte's poor health will most certainly cast greater scrutiny over Sara's candidacy. The other calculation is that her candidacy risks splitting the vote and delivering a victory to Moreno or Pacquiao. More twists and turns are likely, as candidates can drop out and be replaced till mid-November.
In the interim, the political dynamic is exceedingly fluid. Marcos is the front-runner, for now, possessing ample name recognition, cognisant of the importance of social media and offering a compelling alternative moving forward. On the other hand, Isko Moreno's big tent campaign could backfire as he risks repeating Grace Poe's mistake in her botched run for the 2016 presidential elections. 


The Philippines: Marcos (Arguably) The Front-Runner In 2022 Presidential Polls