Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

China Materials / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li class="p1">The outlook for copper prices is worse than most think. Battered copper mining stocks may now screen as cheap, but we see further downside.&nbsp;</li><li class="p2">Copper price declines of the past few months have caused many analysts to pare their near-term price forecasts. Yet longer term, most remain bullish, citing copper's geological scarcity and continued, albeit slower, Chinese demand growth.</li><li class="p2">Most analysts forecast an eventual recovery to $2.25-$3.00 per pound, an outlook that informs aggressive price targets on copper mining stocks.&nbsp;</li><li class="p2">We forecast a long-term price of $2.00 per pound and expect ebbing Chinese demand, which accounts for roughly half of the global total, to push prices below $2.00 in 2016 and 2017.</li><li class="p2">We expect China's copper needs to fall as real estate activity fades to a level more commensurate with underlying urbanization trends and power spending shifts away from copper-heavy distribution to copper-light transmission.</li><li class="p2">On the supply side, cost deflation, a flattening of the cost curve, and rising scrap supplies all threaten prices.</li><li class="p2">We see significant downside risk in copper mining stocks.</li></ul><p>Analysts: Jeffrey Stafford, CFA &amp; Daniel Rohr, CFA</p>

The outlook for copper prices is worse than most think. Battered copper mining stocks may now screen as cheap, but we see further downside.&nbsp;Copper price declines of the past few months have caused many analysts to pare their near-term price forecasts. Yet longer term, most remain bullish, citing copper's geological scarcity and continued, albeit slower, Chinese demand growth.Most analysts forecast an eventual recovery to $2.25-$3.00 per pound, an outlook that informs aggressive price targets on copper mining stocks.&nbsp;We forecast a long-term price of $2.00 per pound and expect ebbing Chinese demand, which accounts for roughly half of the global total, to push prices below $2.00 in 2016 and 2017.We expect China's copper needs to fall as real estate activity fades to a level more commensurate with underlying urbanization trends and power spending shifts away from copper-heavy distribution to copper-light transmission.On the supply side, cost deflation, a flattening of the cost curve, and rising scrap supplies all threaten prices.We see significant downside risk in copper mining stocks.Analysts: Jeffrey Stafford, CFA &amp; Daniel Rohr, CFA

China National Building Material (3323 HK)

Zhejiang Longsheng Group Co., (600352 CH)

Gansu Jiu Steel Group Hongxing Iron (600307 CH)

Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK US)

Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union (600010 CH)

Jiangsu Protruly Technology Group (600074 CH)

Inner Mngl Jnzhng Eng & Cmci Gp (601216 CH)

Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group (000630 CH)

China Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech (600111 CH)

China Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG US)

Kingenta Ecological Enginering Gp (002470 CH)

Jiangsu Kangde Xin Composite Mtrl Co (002450 CH)

Zhejiang Zhongcheng Packing Mtrl (002522 CH)

The Outlook for Copper Prices Is Worse than Most Think