Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. 

I'm a highly experienced sell-side analyst with in excess of 22 years of covering Asia Pacific equities, the past 19 years immersed in event strategies encompassing M&A risk arbitrage, directional long/short, stub trades and restructuring.  

My background also includes accountancy (liquidation/bankruptcy/receivership) earlier in my career and as a chief financial officer of a global commodity company based in the US and Mexico.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

SOHO China (410 HK): At Least There Is Dialogue

SOHO China (410 HK) Suspended Pursuant To The Takeovers Code - Again

SOHO China Suspended Ahead Of Possible Blackstone Bid

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<div>
<p>When PRC commercial property-play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soho-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4123:1" rel="noopener">SOHO China Ltd (410 HK)</a> <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0616/2021061600985.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a pre-conditional Offer from the Blackstone Group at $5.00/share on the 16 June, my initial takeaway in <em><a href="https://skr.ma/1ZxiU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOHO China's (410 HK) Done &amp; Dusted VGO</a></em> was this was a super clean deal.</p>
<ul>
<li>It was a 31.6% premium to last close and a 57.6% premium over the average close of the last five trading days.</li>
<li>The pre-cons pertain to clearance from SAMR under PRC Anti-Monopoly Law, and a simplified procedure or simple case application was (is) expected.</li>
<li>The Offer was conditional on 50% of the voting rights tendered within the Offer period, and the irrevocables (from founders Pan Shiyi and his wife Zhang Xin) were 54.93%.</li>
</ul>
<p>Done &amp; dusted no? </p>
<p>Since closing at an initial 9% <em>gross</em> spread, this has continually widened and is now out to 20%. Something was decidedly amiss.</p>
</div>
<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/216/412/original/image_60616477431625191475938.png?1625191478" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="216412"></figure>
<p>Source: CapIQ</p>
</div>
<p>It is difficult to see the security risks at work here - SOHO has been offloading properties for years, like Sky SOHO to Gaw Capital Partners in <a href="https://www.mingtiandi.com/real-estate/finance-real-estate/gaw-closes-on-798m-purchase-of-sky-soho-in-shanghai/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2018</a> for RMB5bn, none of which attracted security issues.</p>
<div>
<p>There are various media reports of Pan's son making disparaging comments at the time of the Chinese and India skirmish last year. This appears one area where the deal is perhaps getting politicised.</p>
<p>However Blackstone would have been aware of this development, and still proceeded with the proposal.'</p>
<p>What else is there?</p>
<p>Perhaps with the passing of former US Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfield, it seems apt to apply his "known knowns" phrase as it relates to this transaction.</p>
<p>More below the fold. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p></p>
</div>


When PRC commercial property-play SOHO China Ltd (410 HK) announced a pre-conditional Offer from the Blackstone Group at $5.00/share on the 16 June, my initial takeaway in SOHO China's (410 HK) Done &amp; Dusted VGO was this was a super clean deal.

It was a 31.6% premium to last close and a 57.6% premium over the average close of the last five trading days.
The pre-cons pertain to clearance from SAMR under PRC Anti-Monopoly Law, and a simplified procedure or simple case application was (is) expected.
The Offer was conditional on 50% of the voting rights tendered within the Offer period, and the irrevocables (from founders Pan Shiyi and his wife Zhang Xin) were 54.93%.

Done &amp; dusted no? 
Since closing at an initial 9% gross spread, this has continually widened and is now out to 20%. Something was decidedly amiss.



Source: CapIQ

It is difficult to see the security risks at work here - SOHO has been offloading properties for years, like Sky SOHO to Gaw Capital Partners in 2018 for RMB5bn, none of which attracted security issues.

There are various media reports of Pan's son making disparaging comments at the time of the Chinese and India skirmish last year. This appears one area where the deal is perhaps getting politicised.
However Blackstone would have been aware of this development, and still proceeded with the proposal.'
What else is there?
Perhaps with the passing of former US Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfield, it seems apt to apply his "known knowns" phrase as it relates to this transaction.
More below the fold. 





SOHO China (410 HK): Known Knowns As Spread Widens

Soho China

SOHO China (410 HK): Known Knowns As Spread Widens