Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Nigel Chiang

Centennial Asia Advisors deliver timely and accurate economic and political analysis to investors, focused on anticipating key turning points that affect the client’s interests in the Asia-Pacific region. Clients include public agencies and central banks, as well as fund managers and investment banks. The company draws strength from its flexibility to tailor products to fit client’s specific interests. It provides detailed macro-economic forecasts, scenario analysis and timely assessments of how specific major economic and political developments may affect a client’s areas of interest. At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way.

Economist

Singapore: Revisiting Our Growth Forecasts and Assumptions

Singapore: Rising Confidence in Growth but No Hawkish Turn in Policy Yet

Singapore: Further Scope For Growth Surprises

Forthcoming Tech Inflection to Extend the Upturn in the Global Tech Cycle

Singapore: When Will MAS Normalise Policy?

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul style="list-style-type: square;">
<li>The return to Phase 2 will likely not pose a material risk to growth given the reduced stringency of restrictions this time around, with businesses allowed to continue their operations except for gyms and indoor classes.</li>
<li>Footfall at workplaces, sites of recreation, and transit stations may fall 5-10% from current levels, with associated impact on private consumption manageable.</li>
<li>More importantly, we expect a sizable chunk (45%) of services activity which accounts for 60% of GDP to accelerate earnestly in the coming quarters in line with external demand, helping to offset continuing weakness in the more domestic-oriented services sectors.</li>
<li>This adds to what is fundamentally a very vibrant outlook for exports and manufacturing. In particular, the upturn in global tech demand that is underway and still has room to run will be very accretive to the outlook for growth in 2021-22, with domestic output of semiconductors and semiconductor capital equipment accounting for 8.4% and 2.1% of GDP, respectively.</li>
</ul><p><strong>Our revised GDP growth forecast for 2021 now stands at 7.9%, up from 6.7% previously. </strong>For perspective, the stronger-than-expected growth outturn in 1Q21 mechanically pushes up our previous forecast of 6.7% to 7.2%, with the remaining 0.7 percentage points reflecting decent growth in services this year, given material spillovers from global demand, and further upside in manufacturing.</p>


The return to Phase 2 will likely not pose a material risk to growth given the reduced stringency of restrictions this time around, with businesses allowed to continue their operations except for gyms and indoor classes.
Footfall at workplaces, sites of recreation, and transit stations may fall 5-10% from current levels, with associated impact on private consumption manageable.
More importantly, we expect a sizable chunk (45%) of services activity which accounts for 60% of GDP to accelerate earnestly in the coming quarters in line with external demand, helping to offset continuing weakness in the more domestic-oriented services sectors.
This adds to what is fundamentally a very vibrant outlook for exports and manufacturing. In particular, the upturn in global tech demand that is underway and still has room to run will be very accretive to the outlook for growth in 2021-22, with domestic output of semiconductors and semiconductor capital equipment accounting for 8.4% and 2.1% of GDP, respectively.
Our revised GDP growth forecast for 2021 now stands at 7.9%, up from 6.7% previously. For perspective, the stronger-than-expected growth outturn in 1Q21 mechanically pushes up our previous forecast of 6.7% to 7.2%, with the remaining 0.7 percentage points reflecting decent growth in services this year, given material spillovers from global demand, and further upside in manufacturing.

Singapore: Trade-Led Upturn to Accelerate