Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Nigel Chiang

Centennial Asia Advisors deliver timely and accurate economic and political analysis to investors, focused on anticipating key turning points that affect the client’s interests in the Asia-Pacific region. Clients include public agencies and central banks, as well as fund managers and investment banks. The company draws strength from its flexibility to tailor products to fit client’s specific interests. It provides detailed macro-economic forecasts, scenario analysis and timely assessments of how specific major economic and political developments may affect a client’s areas of interest. At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way.

Economist

Singapore: Trade-Led Upturn to Accelerate

Singapore: Revisiting Our Growth Forecasts and Assumptions

Singapore: When Will MAS Normalise Policy?

Forthcoming Tech Inflection to Extend the Upturn in the Global Tech Cycle

A Prudent, Safe Budget, But Is It What Singapore Needs?

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

GDP growth in 1Q20 was much stronger than expected, directionally vindicating our full-year forecast of 6.7%, which back in January was significantly above the consensus of 5.5%.The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has acknowledged more recently that GDP growth in 2021 could exceed 6.0%, the upper bound of the official forecast range (4-6%).There is scope for further positive growth surprises, in our view, from a confluence of cyclical tailwinds: robust semiconductor-related activity; re-opening to cross-border travel ahead of schedule; continued normalisation of consumer behaviour; implementation of previous investment commitments; relocation of fund management activity from the region.Despite this, we do not expect monetary policy settings to be altered this year. Even with the strong growth that we expect this year, the output gap will still be negative by end-2021, turning positive only in the first half of 2022.Thus, any upside risks to inflation from firming demand will likely be contained by a) remaining slack in the jobs market alongside improvements in labour productivity that caps the extent of increase in unit labour costs, not to mention subdued upward pressure on rents.

GDP growth in 1Q20 was much stronger than expected, directionally vindicating our full-year forecast of 6.7%, which back in January was significantly above the consensus of 5.5%.The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has acknowledged more recently that GDP growth in 2021 could exceed 6.0%, the upper bound of the official forecast range (4-6%).There is scope for further positive growth surprises, in our view, from a confluence of cyclical tailwinds: robust semiconductor-related activity; re-opening to cross-border travel ahead of schedule; continued normalisation of consumer behaviour; implementation of previous investment commitments; relocation of fund management activity from the region.Despite this, we do not expect monetary policy settings to be altered this year. Even with the strong growth that we expect this year, the output gap will still be negative by end-2021, turning positive only in the first half of 2022.Thus, any upside risks to inflation from firming demand will likely be contained by a) remaining slack in the jobs market alongside improvements in labour productivity that caps the extent of increase in unit labour costs, not to mention subdued upward pressure on rents.

Singapore: Further Scope For Growth Surprises