HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Over 15 years' experience in both finance and healthcare, covering clinic operations, investment and equity research in both China and overseas.

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep29)- Henlius Privatization Update, NHSA Fee Control, Hansoh Is Exception

Tong Ren Tang Technologies (1666.HK) - Undervalued; Performance Will Rebound After a Brief Headwind

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.6) - WuXi to Sell Assets, Be Rational on China CXO, Sihuan Underperform

Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422.CH) - The Deal with Merck Brightens the Outlook; A Dark Horse?

Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990.HK) - Current High Valuation Is Not Secure

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276.CH) - Share Price Is at Risk of Correction

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Equity Bottom-Up

Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The imagination brought to the market by Kelun’s traditional businesses (infusion business, antibiotics and bulk pharmaceutical chemicals, generic drugs) is not high. So, the only highlight is Kelun-bio’s ADC pipeline.</li>
<li>Considering that Kelun has lost pricing power due to VBP, and both Chuanning and Kelun bio have been spun off and listed independently, Kelun's valuation will not be too high.</li>
<li>Our forecast is net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024-2026 is in the range of RMB3-5 billion. Reasonable market value is RMB30-50 billion. Subsidiary Kelun Bio is a better bet.</li>
</ul>


The imagination brought to the market by Kelun’s traditional businesses (infusion business, antibiotics and bulk pharmaceutical chemicals, generic drugs) is not high. So, the only highlight is Kelun-bio’s ADC pipeline.
Considering that Kelun has lost pricing power due to VBP, and both Chuanning and Kelun bio have been spun off and listed independently, Kelun's valuation will not be too high.
Our forecast is net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024-2026 is in the range of RMB3-5 billion. Reasonable market value is RMB30-50 billion. Subsidiary Kelun Bio is a better bet.


Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422.CH) - The Real Breakthrough Point in Valuation Is ADC Pipeline