Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Shiseido: Around 59% Upside Possible on Upgrades to Consensus

Shiseido: China Exposure, Potential Earnings Misses and Write-Offs Create Additional Downside Risk

Shiseido: International Cosmetics Brands Sent Packing by Chinese Rivals

Crackdown on Live-Streaming E-Commerce Could Derail The Recovery of Japanese Cosmetics

Shiseido: China Is Still a Question Mark But The Rest of The Business Deserves Plaudits

Shiseido: There’s Upside to Consensus Estimates But China Slowdown Is a Too Big of a Risk

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The market position of Japanese cosmetics in China is weakening with Japanese exports declining around 5.0% YoY in January and February 2022.</li>
<li>With Shanghai under a strict lockdown and the recovery of inbound demand taking more time than expected, it is possible that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a> could downgrade its 2022 guidance.</li>
<li>These forces could take Shiseido’s valuation multiples to the pre-2013 level, resulting in a downside of close to 30%.</li>
</ul>


The market position of Japanese cosmetics in China is weakening with Japanese exports declining around 5.0% YoY in January and February 2022.
With Shanghai under a strict lockdown and the recovery of inbound demand taking more time than expected, it is possible that Shiseido Company (4911 JP) could downgrade its 2022 guidance.
These forces could take Shiseido’s valuation multiples to the pre-2013 level, resulting in a downside of close to 30%.


Shiseido: Shanghai Lockdown Adds Pressure to Faltering Japanese Cosmetics