Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Shiseido: Outperforms With Relaxation Of China’s COVID Restrictions, Long Term We Are a Bit Cautious

Shiseido: Conservative Guidance Is Not a Cause for Concern as Shiseido Almost Always Overdelivers

Shiseido: China Exposure, Potential Earnings Misses and Write-Offs Create Additional Downside Risk

Shiseido: Around 59% Upside Possible on Upgrades to Consensus

Shiseido: Drunk Elephant Seems an $845m Write-Off

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The success of domestic brands in the low-cost cosmetics segment seems to be cascading into mid and high-price segments within the Chinese cosmetics market.</li>
<li>This could be bad news for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a>, whose investors are expecting the company to maintain its historical superiority in the Chinese cosmetics market.</li>
<li>We think that there’s a good chance for FY+2 EV/OP to return to the 12-20x range once the market price-in Shiseido’s weakening competitive position in the mainland China market.</li>
</ul>


The success of domestic brands in the low-cost cosmetics segment seems to be cascading into mid and high-price segments within the Chinese cosmetics market.
This could be bad news for Shiseido Company (4911 JP), whose investors are expecting the company to maintain its historical superiority in the Chinese cosmetics market.
We think that there’s a good chance for FY+2 EV/OP to return to the 12-20x range once the market price-in Shiseido’s weakening competitive position in the mainland China market.


Shiseido: International Cosmetics Brands Sent Packing by Chinese Rivals