The Flash PMIs diverge between manufacturing’s depression and rudely resilient services activity. It’s a similar story for the UK, EA, and US as they resist recession.
Their unemployment rates are lower than a year ago, except in the UK, where there has been a slight rise of questionable statistical significance.
Persistent excess demand is inconsistent with ending the inflation problem. We still expect another BoE hike and two from the ECB. Further Fed steps could extend that.
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