bearish
EA: Technically in Recession
384 Views08 Jun 2023 21:14
SUMMARY
- EA GDP growth extended the disappointment from the initial Q1 estimate by flipping the sign into a 0.1% q-o-q decline, while Eurostat also revised 4Q22 into a fall.
- Although technically a recession, the EA is not enduring a typical correction of excesses as employment is still booming. Surveys disagree about the Spring performance.
- Activity suffers short-term from real wage weakness, but that is better than the alternative in the UK, where bumper pay deals feed gratuitous second-round effects.
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