Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Sea Ltd: Reduced Consensus Is Still Optimistic

Sea Ltd: Mass Layoffs at Shopee, Tinkering Here and There Won't Make Shopee A World-Class Business

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Consensus remains positive about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> with 12.3% QoQ revenue growth in Q2 and a 32.2% revenue CAGR over the next two years.</li>
<li>However, with Free Fire losing active players and Shopee’s growth momentum in South East Asia broken, we expect a disappointing Q2 from Sea Ltd.</li>
<li>Free Fire is on its last legs and Shopee has decided to halt its geographic expansion. Thus we think that there’s significant downside to Sea’s Q2 and medium-term consensus.</li>
</ul>


Consensus remains positive about Sea Ltd (SE US) with 12.3% QoQ revenue growth in Q2 and a 32.2% revenue CAGR over the next two years.
However, with Free Fire losing active players and Shopee’s growth momentum in South East Asia broken, we expect a disappointing Q2 from Sea Ltd.
Free Fire is on its last legs and Shopee has decided to halt its geographic expansion. Thus we think that there’s significant downside to Sea’s Q2 and medium-term consensus.


Sea Ltd: Free Fire Is Losing Active Players And Shopee’s Growth Momentum Is Broken