Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

I investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Samsung Dividend Play, Hedging-Adjusted with Futures

Samsung 1P Going Strong on Expectations of Special Dividend & New 3-Yr Return Plan

Samsung 1P Ends 3-Day Skid Relative to Ordinary: Situation Check-Up

How Do We Play Samsung Dividend Arb Trade?

Samsung C/1P Is At -1.4σ & 1P Discount Close to an All-Time Low: Structural Reversion Is Ahead

Removal of 30% Limit on a Single Stock in ETFs: Impact on Samsung 30% Cap in KOSPI 200

Event-Driven

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Event-Driven

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

The market expectation on Samsung Electronics' earnings improvement in the immediate term is growing.The local street consensus has improved by 7% (OP-wise) since three months ago.But if compiling only the recently revised ones, the current expectation is somewhere around ₩37T, which is a 15% improvement.<table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="300">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"POSCO, FY2020 (₩B)"}' data-sheets-formula='=R[-34]C[1]&amp;", FY2020 (₩B)"'>Samsung Electronics, FY2020 (₩B)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44103}' data-sheets-formula="=today()">2020. 9. 29</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-1M"}'>T-1M</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-3M"}'>T-3M</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-6M"}'>T-6M</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-1Y"}'>T-1Y</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Sales"}'>Sales</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":235569.1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]/10">235,569.1</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":233170.2}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]/10">233,170.2</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":230392.4}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]/10">230,392.4</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":249611.9}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]/10">249,611.9</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":246984.8}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]/10">246,984.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"OP"}'>OP</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":34237.5}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]/10">34,237.5</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":32553.8}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]/10">32,553.8</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":32039.6}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]/10">32,039.6</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":38411}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]/10">38,411.0</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":35812.5}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]/10">35,812.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"NP to controlling stake"}'>NP to controlling stake</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":25776.4}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]/10">25,776.4</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":24626.3}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]/10">24,626.3</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":24719.4}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]/10">24,719.4</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":29700.3}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]/10">29,700.3</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":27894.1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]/10">27,894.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"EPS (₩)"}'>EPS (₩)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":3795}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">3,795</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":3625}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">3,625</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":3639}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">3,639</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":4372}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">4,372</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":4107}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">4,107</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"PER (x)"}'>PER (x)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":15.3}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">15.30</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":15.3}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">15.30</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":14.7}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">14.70</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":11.1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">11.10</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":11.8}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">11.80</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"12M PER (x)"}'>12M PER (x)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":12.38}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">12.38</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":12.44}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">12.44</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":12.28}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">12.28</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":10.19}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">10.19</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":12.52}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">12.52</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"TP (₩)"}'>TP (₩)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":75258}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">75,258</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":71592}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">71,592</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":65167}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">65,167</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":67770}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">67,770</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":56045}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">56,045</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="6" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: FnGuide"}'>Source: FnGuide</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>Then, implications for year-end dividend?Yes, it means we now have a higher chance of enjoying other shareholder returns for this year.

The market expectation on Samsung Electronics' earnings improvement in the immediate term is growing.The local street consensus has improved by 7% (OP-wise) since three months ago.But if compiling only the recently revised ones, the current expectation is somewhere around ₩37T, which is a 15% improvement.










Samsung Electronics, FY2020 (₩B)
2020. 9. 29
T-1M
T-3M
T-6M
T-1Y


Sales
235,569.1
233,170.2
230,392.4
249,611.9
246,984.8


OP
34,237.5
32,553.8
32,039.6
38,411.0
35,812.5


NP to controlling stake
25,776.4
24,626.3
24,719.4
29,700.3
27,894.1


EPS (₩)
3,795
3,625
3,639
4,372
4,107


PER (x)
15.30
15.30
14.70
11.10
11.80


12M PER (x)
12.38
12.44
12.28
10.19
12.52


TP (₩)
75,258
71,592
65,167
67,770
56,045

Source: FnGuide

Then, implications for year-end dividend?Yes, it means we now have a higher chance of enjoying other shareholder returns for this year.

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares

Samsung Year-End Dividend Play Situation