bullish
Resilient Activity Raises Forward Rates
Phil has highlighted this Insight as a Top Pick
394 Views11 Aug 2023 23:21
SUMMARY
- Activity data have kept skewing towards surprising resilience. Price and wage inflation drive current policy decisions, but activity is critical to the outlook.
- The resilience of GDP growing near its potential pace means the current effective policy setting doesn’t look that tight. Neutral rates may be near pre-GFC norms.
- Policymakers can wait for evidence that cyclical excesses have gone before turning to relatively small and late cuts. Policy hysteresis only compounds this pressure.
Begin exploring Smartkarma's AI-augmented investing intelligence platform with a complimentary Preview Pass to:
- Unlock research summaries
- Follow top, independent analysts
- Receive personalised alerts
- Access Analytics, Events and more
Join 55,000+ investors, including top global asset managers overseeing $13+ trillion.
Upgrade later to our paid plans for full-access.
or
Already have an account? Sign In Now
Discussions
(Paid Plans Only)
- EA: Disinflationary Gravity in Sep-2329 Sep 2023
- EA: Disinflation Not Petering Out20 Sep 2023
- ECB Poses a Probable Peak After Hike15 Sep 2023
- Avoiding Recession Raises All Rates25 Apr 2023
- UK: Lying Flat Again in 202313 Apr 2023
x