bullish

Resilient Activity Raises Forward Rates

Phil has highlighted this Insight as a Top Pick
388 Views11 Aug 2023 23:21
SUMMARY
  • Activity data have kept skewing towards surprising resilience. Price and wage inflation drive current policy decisions, but activity is critical to the outlook.
  • The resilience of GDP growing near its potential pace means the current effective policy setting doesn’t look that tight. Neutral rates may be near pre-GFC norms.
  • Policymakers can wait for evidence that cyclical excesses have gone before turning to relatively small and late cuts. Policy hysteresis only compounds this pressure.
Begin exploring Smartkarma's AI-augmented investing intelligence platform with a complimentary Preview Pass to:
  • Unlock research summaries
  • Follow top, independent analysts
  • Receive personalised alerts
  • Access Analytics, Events and more

Join 55,000+ investors, including top global asset managers overseeing $13+ trillion.

Upgrade later to our paid plans for full-access.

or
Already have an account? Sign In Now
Discussions
(Paid Plans Only)
Logo
Phil Rush
Chief Economist
Heteronomics
United KingdomMulti-AssetMacroeconomicsCross Asset Strategy
x