Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Athaporn served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 22 years, of which 19 were in research and 9 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006.

Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also performs financial advisory services for TKC Services and provides 11 other on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely:

1) Snippets (news-driven);
2) Sathorn Series (financial services);
3) Silicon Stories (technology); 
4) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin series);
5) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative);
6) Thai Media Spotlight;
7) Political Pit Stop; 
8) Telecom Review; 
9) Thai Macro Watch (read-through from foreign events);  
10) Small Cap Diary; and
11) Property Grid

There are also 3 limited-time series driven by specific events or locations, namely:
1) Thai Corona Crisis;
2) South Series; and
3) Mechanics and Details (deal forensics).

TMB Vs SCB: Bancassurance Ain't Big Enough for the Two of Us!

Thai Macro Watch: China Devalues, Thailand Cut Rates

Thai Macro Watch: Huawei, Trade Wars, and More

Reality Check XVIII: How Much Mojo Can True Derive From True Ryde?

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

Equity Bottom-Up

SCB's CEO recently cited some interesting statistics about how transactions were rapidly moving from branches to mobile apps. The logical thing to do would be to close off branches, downsizing the branch staff, and cut costs, while reinvesting that savings into the technology infrastructure. In this review, we estimate the potential upside that may come from:<ul>
<li>
Savings from real estate costs and downsizing. We estimate benefits of Bt20.2bn from downsizing at the branches and another Bt4.5bn from property savings, assuming 7,000 layoffs and 350 bank closures.</li>
<li>
Costs involved in restructuring. We further estimate that this will cost the Bank: 1) Bt1.7bn in severance compensation; and 2) an additional Bt5.06bn in technology upgrades and consulting fees.</li>
<li>
Actual difficulties and hold-backs in the plan. Long history and links to the CPB (Crown Property Bureau) makes it politically incorrect to do such major cuts. Certain branch employees are harder to cut than others. In our view, the lack of a major crisis is also part of the equation.</li>
<li>
Action Point. Although it is likely that we won't recover all of our original investment, our estimates imply a Bt5.3/sh upside for SCB, so we may be holding to the stock for a while.</li>
</ul>

SCB's CEO recently cited some interesting statistics about how transactions were rapidly moving from branches to mobile apps. The logical thing to do would be to close off branches, downsizing the branch staff, and cut costs, while reinvesting that savings into the technology infrastructure. In this review, we estimate the potential upside that may come from:

Savings from real estate costs and downsizing. We estimate benefits of Bt20.2bn from downsizing at the branches and another Bt4.5bn from property savings, assuming 7,000 layoffs and 350 bank closures.

Costs involved in restructuring. We further estimate that this will cost the Bank: 1) Bt1.7bn in severance compensation; and 2) an additional Bt5.06bn in technology upgrades and consulting fees.

Actual difficulties and hold-backs in the plan. Long history and links to the CPB (Crown Property Bureau) makes it politically incorrect to do such major cuts. Certain branch employees are harder to cut than others. In our view, the lack of a major crisis is also part of the equation.

Action Point. Although it is likely that we won't recover all of our original investment, our estimates imply a Bt5.3/sh upside for SCB, so we may be holding to the stock for a while.


Reality Check XXI: How Much Upside Can SCB Squeeze From Branch Downsizing?

Siam Commercial Bank

Reality Check XXI: How Much Upside Can SCB Squeeze From Branch Downsizing?