Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Gautam Jain has over 25 years of experience covering global emerging fixed income and currency markets, both as a strategist and a portfolio manager. He has worked in buy-side and sell-side firms, including The Rohatyn Group (TRG Management), Barclays Capital, and Millennium Partners. He has helped manage emerging markets local-currency and hard-currency debt funds. The assets that he covers include currencies, interest rates, sovereign credits, and related derivatives. He specializes in portfolio construction, smart-beta index creation, and asset allocation. Mr. Jain holds a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Columbia University and is a CFA charter holder.

Rates 10y Dashboard: Which Countries Are Outliers Within EM Rates This Year?

Rates 10y Dashboard: Higher Risk Premium in EM Rates Than in EM FX to Persist

Alpha Bites: A Beta-Neutral 5s10s Flattener in Thailand

FX Dashboard: Avoid the Lira as Turkey Remains Mired in a Crisis

Rates 10y Dashboard: Higher Inflation Means Another Rate Hike in Turkey

FX Dashboard: Turkey's Assets Descend into Familiar Turmoil

FX & Rates

<p>Long-end rates in EM have not kept up with the rally in US rates, with the notable exception of Turkey. The rally in Turkish rates has been impressive especially when factoring in the recent spike in inflation. Nevertheless, Turkish rates should continue to outperform as we expect the central bank to ease later this year and the macroeconomic and technical backdrops have improved. However, any position in Turkey is inherently risky because of political meddling in monetary policymaking.</p><p>Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.</p>

Long-end rates in EM have not kept up with the rally in US rates, with the notable exception of Turkey. The rally in Turkish rates has been impressive especially when factoring in the recent spike in inflation. Nevertheless, Turkish rates should continue to outperform as we expect the central bank to ease later this year and the macroeconomic and technical backdrops have improved. However, any position in Turkey is inherently risky because of political meddling in monetary policymaking.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Rates 10y Dashboard: Are Rates in Turkey Due for a Reprieve?

TRY

Rates 10y Dashboard: Are Rates in Turkey Due for a Reprieve?