Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Jim Walker is the chief economist at Aletheia Analyst Network Limited, an independent research platform for the Asia Pacific region. Prior to joining Aletheia he was the founder and chief economist at Asianomics Group an economics and strategy research consultancy company formed in late 2007. 

Before establishing Asianomics he was the chief economist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. He joined CLSA in late 1991. Over the years Dr Jim achieved numerous ‘best economist’ rankings in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investor and Greenwich surveys of fund managers. In 1995 he wrote about the prospect of Asia being forced off its de facto dollar peg “within the next two-three years”. The Asian Crisis, precipitated by the Thai baht devaluation, began in July 1997.

In recent years he is best known for forecasting the US 2007 downturn and financial sector meltdown in his series of ‘Apocalypse’ reports. He remains deeply sceptical of the prevailing wisdom in central banks’ approach to monetary policy.

Over the years he has also developed an approach to analysing Asian economies based on profit and credit cycles where the importance of investment spending as the driver of economic activity is explained.

Early in his career he worked in his native Scotland as a research fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute for Research on the Scottish Economy, and then at The Royal Bank of Scotland’s Edinburgh headquarters. He holds a Bachelor of Arts Honours degree and a doctorate in economics from the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.

Chief Economist

Real Lending Rates and the Investment Cycle

Asian Trade & Currency Appreciation - Well Positioned

Asean Growth – Investment Cycles and Lending Rates

Real Lending Rates Primer – An Important Economic Signal

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<p>Where did last year's surprise global recovery come from and, more importantly, how long will it last? It came from where it always does, a recovery in profits. This recovery was facilitated by the end to the extraordinary efforts to weaken major currencies against the US dollar. In turn, this allowed the natural cycle to take over again with companies cutting their cloth to suit business conditions.</p><p>As the global profit cycle gets fully underway - a 2018 story, not last year's - there is more upside, especially for emerging markets (the ones where stocks are still valued on earnings rather than depressed discount factors). We look at all of the Asian economies and show where the profit cycles are most likely to power ahead - China, Japan, Malaysia and Vietnam look set to lead the way. When will it all end? Not before 2019 at least, more likely 2020 or 2021. </p>

Where did last year's surprise global recovery come from and, more importantly, how long will it last? It came from where it always does, a recovery in profits. This recovery was facilitated by the end to the extraordinary efforts to weaken major currencies against the US dollar. In turn, this allowed the natural cycle to take over again with companies cutting their cloth to suit business conditions.As the global profit cycle gets fully underway - a 2018 story, not last year's - there is more upside, especially for emerging markets (the ones where stocks are still valued on earnings rather than depressed discount factors). We look at all of the Asian economies and show where the profit cycles are most likely to power ahead - China, Japan, Malaysia and Vietnam look set to lead the way. When will it all end? Not before 2019 at least, more likely 2020 or 2021. 

Profits and the Business Cycle