Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. 

I'm a highly experienced sell-side analyst with in excess of 22 years of covering Asia Pacific equities, the past 19 years immersed in event strategies encompassing M&A risk arbitrage, directional long/short, stub trades and restructuring.  

My background also includes accountancy (liquidation/bankruptcy/receivership) earlier in my career and as a chief financial officer of a global commodity company based in the US and Mexico.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Time For Unprecedented Action In Harbin Deal

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Despite the unprecedented two-month extension, the <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2019/0719/ltn20190719681.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lapse</a> of the voluntary cash Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harbin-electric-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11116:1" rel="noopener">Harbin Electric Co Ltd H (1133 HK)</a> was always a very real possibility, as reflected in the wide spread to terms for the majority of the tendering period. Nevertheless, no other Hong Kong takeover has come so close to satisfying the acceptance condition, and failing.
88.32% of shares out tendered into Harbin's Offer at the close of the Offer, up from 85.84% on the May 20 (the day of the two-month extension), or an increase of 16.75mn shares. 
Only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-dept-store-china" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8144:1" rel="noopener">New World Dept Store China (825 HK)</a> provides a comparative study as to what can occur in a like-situation, wherein 83.9% of NWD's Offer shares was tendered, <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2017/0828/ltn201708281108.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">falling short</a> of the 90% acceptance condition.
The volume in Harbin today was just 13.7mn shares - or 0.8% of shares out - as 88.3% of shares outstanding are locked up for around 10 days after last Friday's close.
These shares will be returned on or before the 29 July. Expect another leg down in the share price around this time when shares are returned.

Despite the unprecedented two-month extension, the lapse of the voluntary cash Offer for Harbin Electric Co Ltd H (1133 HK) was always a very real possibility, as reflected in the wide spread to terms for the majority of the tendering period. Nevertheless, no other Hong Kong takeover has come so close to satisfying the acceptance condition, and failing.
88.32% of shares out tendered into Harbin's Offer at the close of the Offer, up from 85.84% on the May 20 (the day of the two-month extension), or an increase of 16.75mn shares. 
Only New World Dept Store China (825 HK) provides a comparative study as to what can occur in a like-situation, wherein 83.9% of NWD's Offer shares was tendered, falling short of the 90% acceptance condition.
The volume in Harbin today was just 13.7mn shares - or 0.8% of shares out - as 88.3% of shares outstanding are locked up for around 10 days after last Friday's close.
These shares will be returned on or before the 29 July. Expect another leg down in the share price around this time when shares are returned.

Harbin Electric Co Ltd H

Post-Mortem on Harbin Electric