Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Pinduoduo: The US Expansion Could Slash Profitability While Risking Xi’s Wrath

Pinduoduo: A Beat Likely in 2Q22, But Medium-Term Consensus Is Still Hung Up On Old Assumptions

Pinduoduo: Community Group Buying Is Facing Multiple Challenges

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a>’s 2Q22 was rather strong with revenue of RMB 31.4bn (consensus: RMB 23.6bn) and OP of RMB 8.7bn (consensus: RMB 3.6bn).</li>
<li>However, the management was quick to dismiss the pretence that piduoduo would be able to maintain these elevated growth/margin numbers throughout the rest of the year and over the medium-term.</li>
<li>This creates a lot of downside to consensus 2H22 and medium-term revenue and OP estimates in a time when valuation multiples have expanded over 70% from the March 2022 bottom.</li>
</ul>



Pinduoduo (PDD US)’s 2Q22 was rather strong with revenue of RMB 31.4bn (consensus: RMB 23.6bn) and OP of RMB 8.7bn (consensus: RMB 3.6bn).
However, the management was quick to dismiss the pretence that piduoduo would be able to maintain these elevated growth/margin numbers throughout the rest of the year and over the medium-term.
This creates a lot of downside to consensus 2H22 and medium-term revenue and OP estimates in a time when valuation multiples have expanded over 70% from the March 2022 bottom.


Pinduoduo: Management Warns That 2Q22 Is Not a Good Benchmark For Future

PDD Holdings

Pinduoduo: Management Warns That 2Q22 Is Not a Good Benchmark For Future