Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Pinduoduo: Management Warns That 2Q22 Is Not a Good Benchmark For Future

Pinduoduo: The US Expansion Could Slash Profitability While Risking Xi’s Wrath

Pinduoduo: Community Group Buying Is Facing Multiple Challenges

Pinduoduo: Foreign Investors Could Panic as VC Chief Trims His Holdings

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Based on the correlation between revenue and China’s online retail sales, we estimate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a>’s Q2 revenue to beat consensus by around RMB 2.4bn.</li>
<li>Our cost estimates translate the above revenue to an OP of RMB 4.0bn in 2Q22 compared to RMB 3.6bn for consensus.</li>
<li>Even though consensus seems to have over-corrected its 2Q22 assumptions, it is still hung up on old assumptions for the medium term.</li>
</ul>


Based on the correlation between revenue and China’s online retail sales, we estimate Pinduoduo (PDD US)’s Q2 revenue to beat consensus by around RMB 2.4bn.
Our cost estimates translate the above revenue to an OP of RMB 4.0bn in 2Q22 compared to RMB 3.6bn for consensus.
Even though consensus seems to have over-corrected its 2Q22 assumptions, it is still hung up on old assumptions for the medium term.


Pinduoduo: A Beat Likely in 2Q22, But Medium-Term Consensus Is Still Hung Up On Old Assumptions

PDD Holdings

Pinduoduo: A Beat Likely in 2Q22, But Medium-Term Consensus Is Still Hung Up On Old Assumptions