Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

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Initiating Coverage on Pemex: Set to Outperform on Reclassification Potential

PEMEX 3Q24: Government Support Continues to Strengthen

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>Weak 4Q24 results, rising leverage, and lack of a clear plan heighten credit concerns.</li>
<li>We downgrade Pemex to Underperform. In our view, the absence of a clear financial plan under the current circumstances significantly undermines Pemex’s management credibility in addressing its serious debt challenges.</li>
<li>From a credit perspective, results were marked by a 27.1% sequential decline in LTM adjusted EBITDA, while total debt decreased by $2.1 billion.</li>
</ul>


Weak 4Q24 results, rising leverage, and lack of a clear plan heighten credit concerns.
We downgrade Pemex to Underperform. In our view, the absence of a clear financial plan under the current circumstances significantly undermines Pemex’s management credibility in addressing its serious debt challenges.
From a credit perspective, results were marked by a 27.1% sequential decline in LTM adjusted EBITDA, while total debt decreased by $2.1 billion.


PEMEX 4Q24: High Carry, But Risks Outweigh Rewards

Petroleos Mexicanos

PEMEX 4Q24: High Carry, But Risks Outweigh Rewards