FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

Inflation Impulse Picks up in NZ; The RBNZ Will Need to Revise up Its Dovish Policy Guidance

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The NZD is one of the most over-valued currencies compared to its long-run average real effective exchange rate and its historically low yield advantage.  In a rising global yield environment, where global investors lose interest in squeezing every last bit of juice from somewhat higher yielding assets, the NZD should under-perform.  Indeed, in recent months, the NZD has become more highly (negatively) correlated with US yields.  But of course, US yields have fallen in the last two weeks as the Fed emphasized a gradual policy tightening cycle and Trump’s progress towards key policy goals stalls, contributing to a fall in the USD and recovery in NZD.  Global growth indicators continue to improve, including export performance in Asia.  The benign US Fed outlook, combined with improved growth indicators, has seen a further sharp rise in Asian equities and currencies. Buoyant global risk appetite is spilling over to stronger commodity currencies, including the NZD.  New Zealand’s Q4 GDP reported last week was much below expected, suggesting that the RBNZ may sound more dovish at its policy statement this week.  However, GDP is likely to bounce back this year.  Underlying demand in the NZ economy remains strong, global conditions have improved, and the NZD is somewhat weaker since February.  On the other hand, dairy prices have weakened and detract from an otherwise improved outlook for growth and inflation in New Zealand.  The RBNZ will be wary of changing its language too much in its policy statement this week for fear of pushing the exchange rate higher.

The NZD is one of the most over-valued currencies compared to its long-run average real effective exchange rate and its historically low yield advantage.  In a rising global yield environment, where global investors lose interest in squeezing every last bit of juice from somewhat higher yielding assets, the NZD should under-perform.  Indeed, in recent months, the NZD has become more highly (negatively) correlated with US yields.  But of course, US yields have fallen in the last two weeks as the Fed emphasized a gradual policy tightening cycle and Trump’s progress towards key policy goals stalls, contributing to a fall in the USD and recovery in NZD.  Global growth indicators continue to improve, including export performance in Asia.  The benign US Fed outlook, combined with improved growth indicators, has seen a further sharp rise in Asian equities and currencies. Buoyant global risk appetite is spilling over to stronger commodity currencies, including the NZD.  New Zealand’s Q4 GDP reported last week was much below expected, suggesting that the RBNZ may sound more dovish at its policy statement this week.  However, GDP is likely to bounce back this year.  Underlying demand in the NZ economy remains strong, global conditions have improved, and the NZD is somewhat weaker since February.  On the other hand, dairy prices have weakened and detract from an otherwise improved outlook for growth and inflation in New Zealand.  The RBNZ will be wary of changing its language too much in its policy statement this week for fear of pushing the exchange rate higher.

NZD to Follow US Yields, RBNZ to Stay Out of the Way