FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

NZD to Follow US Yields, RBNZ to Stay Out of the Way

From 20,000 Feet, NZD Looks Set to Free-Fall This Year, Without a Parachute

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

New Zealand experienced a rebound in headline inflation in Q1, consistent with the global trend and higher oil prices from a year earlier.  More recent inflation data from the USA and Europe has eased, along with some flattening in oil prices and still subdued core inflation trends.  Market-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have also eased in recent months.  However, underlying inflation measures were broadly stronger in New Zealand and have been improving, albeit from low levels, for over a year. A rising underlying inflation trend is consistent with several years of above-trend demand growth and a tight housing market.  The inflation and growth momentum in New Zealand, improved global growth outlook, and firmer dairy prices suggest that the RBNZ’s low and stable rates guidance needs to be revisited at its 11 May policy meeting.  It may continue to hold rates steady in coming meetings given it is only just getting inflation on target after a prolonged period below target.  It will also remain comforted that wage inflation remains low, although attention will fall on the Q1 labour market data on 2 May. The RBNZ will continue to call the NZD too high, but it is hard to argue for a fall in the near term unless driven by global developments.  The market is also looking for a sizeable rebound in Australia’s CPI inflation next week. Some recovery is likely after surprisingly low outcomes last year.  However, the inflation impulse was still hitting its lows in 2016 and lagging New Zealand by at least a year.  The moderate growth outlook in Australia suggests underlying inflation may take longer to clearly start to recover from record lows. AUD has struggled recently with lower iron ore prices and increasing public anxiety of the housing market.  AUD may appear somewhat more vulnerable than the NZD given its lower inflation impulse.  However improving global growth indicators, led by China, also provide support for the AUD.

New Zealand experienced a rebound in headline inflation in Q1, consistent with the global trend and higher oil prices from a year earlier.  More recent inflation data from the USA and Europe has eased, along with some flattening in oil prices and still subdued core inflation trends.  Market-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have also eased in recent months.  However, underlying inflation measures were broadly stronger in New Zealand and have been improving, albeit from low levels, for over a year. A rising underlying inflation trend is consistent with several years of above-trend demand growth and a tight housing market.  The inflation and growth momentum in New Zealand, improved global growth outlook, and firmer dairy prices suggest that the RBNZ’s low and stable rates guidance needs to be revisited at its 11 May policy meeting.  It may continue to hold rates steady in coming meetings given it is only just getting inflation on target after a prolonged period below target.  It will also remain comforted that wage inflation remains low, although attention will fall on the Q1 labour market data on 2 May. The RBNZ will continue to call the NZD too high, but it is hard to argue for a fall in the near term unless driven by global developments.  The market is also looking for a sizeable rebound in Australia’s CPI inflation next week. Some recovery is likely after surprisingly low outcomes last year.  However, the inflation impulse was still hitting its lows in 2016 and lagging New Zealand by at least a year.  The moderate growth outlook in Australia suggests underlying inflation may take longer to clearly start to recover from record lows. AUD has struggled recently with lower iron ore prices and increasing public anxiety of the housing market.  AUD may appear somewhat more vulnerable than the NZD given its lower inflation impulse.  However improving global growth indicators, led by China, also provide support for the AUD.

Inflation Impulse Picks up in NZ; The RBNZ Will Need to Revise up Its Dovish Policy Guidance