Japan Breaking Out; EM Remains Leadership

Japan Weekly Quantitative Compendium | Fundamentals, Valuation & Key Statistics - Dec 25 2020

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Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Japan has been a favored macro long bet from the 24,000 breakout and more recently from 28,500 lower wedge support. Price action has not been responsive on the SPX surge or during the USD/JPY rally which is typically supportive. We see macro warning signs emerging in the touted rally into late March that sets up a macro short on a rally failure under wedge resistance at 31,500.Bear divergence is maturing that sets up a macro cycle top in late March. This is a sign that Japan is over owned.Tactical bull into strategic sell zone and cycle top that aligns with our SPX 4,040 top zone.

Japan has been a favored macro long bet from the 24,000 breakout and more recently from 28,500 lower wedge support. Price action has not been responsive on the SPX surge or during the USD/JPY rally which is typically supportive. We see macro warning signs emerging in the touted rally into late March that sets up a macro short on a rally failure under wedge resistance at 31,500.Bear divergence is maturing that sets up a macro cycle top in late March. This is a sign that Japan is over owned.Tactical bull into strategic sell zone and cycle top that aligns with our SPX 4,040 top zone.

Nikkei 225

Nikkei Rally Fatigue/Warning Signals