Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Technology sector in Asia mostly, and Global Tech in a couple of jobs. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA and Macquarie. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered Asian semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the global Semi supply chain. In addition to stock coverage, he also publishes research on sectors as that often shows clearer trends and pinpoints the inflection points in a sharper way. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

Mediatek's Advanced Product Strategy Showing Major Progress; Maintain Structural Long

Qualcomm Sep-24: Nice Beat, Dec-24 Guide Small Beat. 3 Growth Factors: Smartphone AI, Automotive, PC

Qualcomm Investor Day: Based on Management Forecasts, Best Case 13% Operating Profit Cagr to FY29

Smartphone Growth Is Slowing Down to +4% YoY in 3Q. Mediatek Had a Good Rally, Time to Take a Break

MediaTek (2454.TT): Weakness in the 4Q24 Is Offset by the Demand for D9400.

MediaTek (2454.TT): There Appears to Be No Bright Spot in 2H24F.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>3Q24 results are inline at the Operating level and 12% above Consensus at the Net Income level. 4Q guidance inline for revenues but 10% below Consensus at Operating level.</li>
<li>Smartphone revenues increased in 3Q24 on Premium AI-enabled chipset. However, 4Q revenue outlook is flat YoY and QoQ. The recovery period after the 2023 downturn seems to be ending.</li>
<li>The Mediatek conundrum is that the stock is expensive versus a slow 2025 outlook. Growth drivers exists but beyond 2025. <strong>In the short-term, the stock is unattractive</strong>.</li>
</ul>


3Q24 results are inline at the Operating level and 12% above Consensus at the Net Income level. 4Q guidance inline for revenues but 10% below Consensus at Operating level.
Smartphone revenues increased in 3Q24 on Premium AI-enabled chipset. However, 4Q revenue outlook is flat YoY and QoQ. The recovery period after the 2023 downturn seems to be ending.
The Mediatek conundrum is that the stock is expensive versus a slow 2025 outlook. Growth drivers exists but beyond 2025. In the short-term, the stock is unattractive.


Mediatek 3Q24 Inline, 4Q Guidance Slightly Weak, Flattish Revenue Outlook and the Stock Is Expensive

Mediatek Inc

Mediatek 3Q24 Inline, 4Q Guidance Slightly Weak, Flattish Revenue Outlook and the Stock Is Expensive