Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Technology sector in Asia mostly, and Global Tech in a couple of jobs. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA and Macquarie. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered Asian semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the global Semi supply chain. In addition to stock coverage, he also publishes research on sectors as that often shows clearer trends and pinpoints the inflection points in a sharper way. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

Qualcomm Sep-24: Nice Beat, Dec-24 Guide Small Beat. 3 Growth Factors: Smartphone AI, Automotive, PC

Qualcomm Hits Record Growth in Automotive and IoT

Mediatek 3Q24 Inline, 4Q Guidance Slightly Weak, Flattish Revenue Outlook and the Stock Is Expensive

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>QCOM estimates ~5% Android revenues growth Cagr to FY29, Automotive 22%, IoT 21%. If QCOM keeps Apple business, revenue Cagr will be 9% to FY29. If QCOM loses it: 6%.</li>
<li>Mngt forecasts high Opex control, target at 22% of revenue, which looks aggressive. Opex reached 31% in FY23-24 . At 22% Opex, Operating Profit would grow ~13% Cagr to FY29.</li>
<li>Android growth looks low, Opex control demanding. As such, we could conclude that 10% Operating Profit Cagr is more likely than 13%. Even with lower growth, the stock is cheap. </li>
</ul>


QCOM estimates ~5% Android revenues growth Cagr to FY29, Automotive 22%, IoT 21%. If QCOM keeps Apple business, revenue Cagr will be 9% to FY29. If QCOM loses it: 6%.
Mngt forecasts high Opex control, target at 22% of revenue, which looks aggressive. Opex reached 31% in FY23-24 . At 22% Opex, Operating Profit would grow ~13% Cagr to FY29.
Android growth looks low, Opex control demanding. As such, we could conclude that 10% Operating Profit Cagr is more likely than 13%. Even with lower growth, the stock is cheap. 


Qualcomm Investor Day: Based on Management Forecasts, Best Case 13% Operating Profit Cagr to FY29

Qualcomm Inc

Qualcomm Investor Day: Based on Management Forecasts, Best Case 13% Operating Profit Cagr to FY29