Last Week in Event SPACE ...
(This insight covers specific insights & comments involving Stubs, Pairs, Arbitrage, share Classification and Events - or SPACE - in the past week)
Chiyoda Corp (6366 JP) (Mkt Cap: $726mn; Liquidity: $15mn)
Travis Lundy tackled the effects of this past year's losses on Chiyoda's balance sheet, and the fact that it finished the fiscal year with negative equity. This situation is quite like that of Sharp in June-July 2016.
(link to Travis' insight: The Upcoming Chiyoda Corp (6366 JP) TOPIX and Nikkei Kickout)
Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) / Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)
It is an open secret the government will try to sell US$12bn worth of shares in JPH around Sep 2019, and until the time the deal is eventually done, it will continue to remain an overhang for the stock.
link to Sumeet Singh's insights:
Japan Post Holdings and Japan Post Bank - Might Be Time to Switch - Part I
Japan Post Holdings and Japan Post Bank - Might Be Time to Switch - Part II
BTS Group Holdings (BTS TB) (Mkt Cap: $4.6bn; Liquidity: $15.5mn)
In November of 2018, Thai conglomerate BTS issued 1 warrant for every nine shares held, for a total of 1,315,710,907 warrants outstanding in the BTS-W4 warrant issue. After ~48.7mm warrants were exercised in the quarter ending in March, the balance of the unexercised Warrants is 1,266,909,369 units.
(link to Travis' insight: BTS Group Warrants: Still A Pleasant Arb)
Japan Display (6740 JP) (Mkt Cap: $558mn; Liquidity: $14mn)
JDI popped on news Apple Inc (AAPL US) will invest $100m in the company's recapitalisation/restructuring effort. The announcement is an indicator that JDI is part of Apple's medium-term planning. JDI's OLED technology, while still not being mass-produced on smartphone scales of hundreds of millions of units a year, is viewed as being of better quality than LG Display's equivalent for the Apple Watch, which led JDI to winning Apple Watch orders this year.
(link to Mio's insight: Japan Display: Apple's Show of Support Is Critical and Is Why the Stock Is Up 30%)
Renault SA (RNO FP) / Nissan Motor (7201 JP)
The shareholder meeting seemed to be friendlier to Saikawa-san than people expected, and much less friendly to Renault than expected. Saikawa-san's strong tone about capital relations sets the stage for a protracted period of sentiment bouncing back and forth. Renault may be somewhat chastened by the tone of the meeting. They should be.
(link to Travis' insight: Renault-Nissan : Détente or Dégringolade?)
Nexon (3659 JP) (Mkt Cap: $13.2bn; Liquidity: $34mn)
This Hankyung Business Daily, one of the more reputable business newspapers in Korea, reported that the Nexon deal is off. Several other local media sources confirmed this as well.
links to:
Sanghyun Park's insight: KJJ Cancelling Nexon Deal: News Credibility, Reasons & Possible Nexon Breakup?
Douglas Kim's insight: Nexon M&A Deal Is Officially Over....for Now
Travis Lundy's insight: Nexon!!! [Question Marks Intensify]
Holcim Philippines (HLCM PM)(Mkt Cap: $1.7bn; Liquidity: $1mn)
First rumoured back in late January - although arguably the sale was flagged after LafargeHolcim Ltd (LHN SW) divested Holcim Indonesia late last year - San Miguel (SMC PM) and Lafarge had entered into a SPA whereby SMC would acquire an 85.73% in HLCM. The agreement places a valuation of US$2.15bn for HLCM on a 100% basis, inclusive of fees for transitional service agreements, or ~PHP16.60-PHP17.00/share, depending on how that 100% is calculated.
(link to my insight: SMC Pursues A Ready-Mixed Fortune With Holcim)
Mod Resources (MOD AU) (Mkt Cap: $90mn; Liquidity: $0.4mn)
Sandfire Resources Nl (SFR AU) has reloaded with an implied Scheme consideration of A$0.45 for MOD, a 45% premium to the closing price of A$0.31/share on the 24 June. SFR had previously approached MOD with an A$0.38/share Indicative Offer back in January this year. MOD shareholders can elect either a cash consideration of A$0.45/share, subject to a cap of A$41.6mn (~25% of the Offer size) OR a scrip consideration of 0.0664 SFR shares for every 1 MOD shares.
(link to my insight: China Power's Scheme Document Dispatched)
Briefly ...
Woongjin Thinkbig (095720 KS) plans to resell its 25.08% stake in Coway Co Ltd (021240 KS). This announcement comes after Woongjin Group reacquired Coway only three months ago from MBK Partners (which originally acquired Coway from Woongjin Group more than six years ago). Woongjin Energy (103130 KS) recently entered into bankruptcy and the Woongjin Group's entire credit ratings have started to decline. Domestic credit rating agencies have lowered Woongjin Co Ltd (016880 KS)'s credit rating to BBB- due to the possibility of Woongjin Energy's failure and a decline in creditworthiness of its affiliate Thinkbig. (link to Douglas' insight: Korea M&A Spotlight: Woongjin Group Plans to Re-Sell Coway)
METRO AG (MEO GR) (Mkt Cap: $6.6bn; Liquidity: $20mn)
German retailer Metro has received an all-cash takeover offer from EP Global Commerce (EPGC), an investment vehicle controlled by Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky, at an offer price of €16.00 per ordinary share and €13.80 per preference share of Metro AG. The offer values Metro AG at an Enterprise Value of €8.8 Bn. EPGC initially started building a stake in Metro in August 2018 where they acquired a 10.9% stake spurring takeover speculation in the market and a subsequent rise in the share price. As a result, EPGC have claimed the offer price "contains a premium of 34.5 percent on the unaffected share price level," referring to the price level in August 2018.
(link to Travis' insight: METRO Move May Mean More)
Altran Technologies Sa (ALT FP) (Mkt Cap: $4bn; Liquidity: $17mn)
French-based IT consultancy firm Capgemini SA (CAP FP) announced its plan to acquire smaller domestic rival Altran via a Voluntary Tender Offer for a cash consideration of €14.00/share (a 22% premium to last close) - restated for a €0.24/share dividend to be detached on the 1 July - valuing the target at an market cap and enterprise value of around €3.6bn and €5.0bn. Capgemini has also signed a definitive agreement to acquire a 11% stake in Altran from a group of investors led by Apax Partners, Altran's largest shareholder.
(link to my insight: Capgemini Snaps Up Smaller Rival Altran)
Merlin Entertainments (MERL LN) (Mkt Cap: $5.8bn; Liquidity: $14mn)
Merlin, which invests and operates entertainment assets such as almost two dozen Madame Tussauds, 9 LegoLand parks, the CocaCola London Eye, Sea Life, and Peppa Pig's World of Play has agreed to be taken private at a two-year high price of GBp 455/share by Blackstone and Kirkbi - the family office and investment co of the Kristianson "Lego" family - with CPPIB (Canada Pension Plan Investment Board) as a co-investor. That's a 15.2% premium to yesterday's close and a 36.8% premium to the close of the day before The ValueAct Letter (i.e. 22 May).
(link to Travis' insight: Merlin Entertainment: Everything Is Awesome... Or At Least Better.... )
Panalpina Welttransport Holding (PWTN SW) (Mkt Cap: $5.4bn; Liquidity: $17mn)
The Main Offer Period announced by DSV A/S (DSV DC) has been extended until the 17th of July. The original Public Exchange Offer announcements stipulated DSV reserved the right to extend the closing of the offer in one or more extensions totalling a maximum of 40 days (it would require Swiss Takeover Board pre-approval to extend beyond 40 additional days).
(link to Travis' insight: DSV Offer for Panalpina Extended)
Melco International Development (200 HK) / Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO US)
Melco Int'l has announced the sale of its 75% holding in ICR Holdings, the vehicle developing an integrated casino in Cyprus, to Melco Resorts for US$375mn or HK$2.9bn. The consideration will be satisfied via the issuance of 18.5mn Melco Resorts ADSs or ~4% of shares out. Subsequent to the sale, Melco will hold 55.8% in Melco Resorts, up from 54.05% currently. Melco Int'l also launched a privatisation offer for its catering business earlier this month.
(link to my insight: StubWorld: Melco Further Cleans House)
Having closed his set-up trade at the end of May, Curtis Lehnert recommends getting back in after First PAC's discount to NAV has widened. The company and affiliates have made steps to unlock the holding company discount such as the selling of its 50% stake in Australasian food producer Goodman Fielder, and Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ)'s (failed) attempt to privatise Indofood Agri Resources (IFAR SP) as the group focuses on its investments in core sectors in Asian emerging markets.
(link to Curtis' insight: TRADE IDEA - First Pacific Stub (142 HK): Round Two with Catalysts)
Stub Wrap For 2019 YTD
An index of the average NAV discount of a basket of 48 Holdcos I have constructed has bounced off January lows, but still trades below the one-year average (of the basket average) and below where the average traded a year ago.
(link to my insight: StubWorld: A 2019 Review In Charts)
BGF Co Ltd (027410 KS) / BGF Retail (282330 KS)
BGFR gained 6.44% on Thursday while BGFC was flat. There remains ongoing ownership transfer between HSF and his eldest son, but this dynamic is widely known in the market. This looked like a stub set-up trade and Sanghyun agrees.
(link to Sanghyun's insight: BGF Stub: Rare Moment of Stub Trade)
S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS) / Yg Entertainment (122870 KS)
Recently KB Asset Management requested SME start a dividend payout of policy of 30%, amongst other measures. Ideally, SME should merge with Like Planning, provide annual dividend yield of 3%, and buyback/cancel shares worth about 3% of shares outstanding, but Douglas believes a dividend yield of 1% and a 1% buyback is more realistic.
(link to Douglas' insight: A Pair Trade Idea Between SM Entertainment & YG Entertainment (Aka "The Drugstore"))
For the month of June, eight new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of US$165bn. This number does not include AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU)'s very short-lived indicative US$2.1bn approach for Vocus Communications (VOC AU). The average premium for the new deals announced in June was 24%, while the average for the first six months of 2019 is ~30%. This insight provides a summary of ongoing M&A situations and a recap of news associated with each event situation in June.
(link to my insight: (Mostly) Asia M&A: June 2019 Roundup)
Asia Satellite Telecom Holdings Ltd (1135 HK) has received a privatisation Offer (by way of a Scheme) from majority-shareholders Citic/Carlyle Group at $10.22/share, a 23.43% premium to last close, although the premium is probably higher as there was an uptick in price and volume shortly before the stock was suspended. Typical Scheme conditions apply. Scheme shares total 25.57% of shares out so a blocking stake is 2.557%. Either IVA or Aberdeen could block but it is not clear why they would. Headcount test applies.
As expected, the Offer for Memtech International (MTEC SP) has been extended to 12 July (or such later date).
Close, but not close enough. Indofood Agri Resources (IFAR SP)'s Offer has lapsed having closed with valid acceptances of 88.08%, just short of the 90% condition.
The Scheme Booklet for Xenith Ip (XIP AU) has been dispatched. The Scheme Meeting will be held on the 25 July with an expected implementation date on the 15 August.
The circular for Tianneng Power Intl (819 HK)'s spin-off and separate A-share listing of Tianneng Battery Group has been dispatched. The EGM will be held on the 12 July. Decent-sized company, generating net profit of RMB1.06bn in FY18. Looks like a new stub, provided the A-share listing is approved.
The ACCC has raised preliminary concerns as to the Automotive Holdings (AHG AU) / Ap Eagers Ltd (APE AU) merger, specifically in the Newcastle/Hunter Valley region. The ACCC has less a concern in the Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane areas, and nationally. APE & AHG are assessing options to facilitate ACCC approval. These issues look like they can be easily remedied.
A mixed bag announcement from Aveo Group (AOG AU). It is in discussions with one party as to a Scheme. If an agreement cannot be reached by the 22 July, discussions will be discontinued. No price was given. On account of a subdued property market, Aveo expects FY19 underlying profit to be A$50mn compared to A$127.2mn in FY18. Shares tanked on the news.
The shares of Yungtay Engineering (1507 TT) have continued to drift upward. It is not clear why they would, but control is still elusive for all. There is currently a judicial process ongoing whereby Hitachi Elevator asked for an annulment of the April 18 shareholder meeting and vote process which handed control of the board over to the Baojia Group of "market shareholders". It is expected that arguments will be heard July 3rd.
My ongoing series flags large moves (~10%) in CCASS holdings over the past week or so, moves which are often outside normal market transactions. These may be indicative of share pledges. Or potential takeovers. Or simply help understand volume swings.
Often these moves can easily be explained - the placement of new shares, rights issue, movements subsequent to a takeover, amongst others. For those mentioned below, I could not find an obvious reason for the CCASS move.
Name | % chg | Into | Out of |
Changshouhua Food (1006 HK) | 20.92% | Citi | Haitong |
China Wan Tong Yuan (8199 HK) | 75.00% | Haitong | Std Chart |
Eagle Legend Asia (936 HK) | 26.00% | Kaisa | UBS |
China Vast Industrial Urban (6166 HK) | 16.58% | Haitong | CCB |
Greater Bay Area (261 HK) | 14.14% | Nanayang | Kingsway |
Starrise Media | 11.44% | Xin Yongan | AMC |
Forgame Holdings (484 HK) | 16.24% | Valuable | Outside CCASS |
Hang Tai Yue (8081 HK) | 70.57% | Ever Joy | Ferran |
China Pioneer Pharma Holdings (1345 HK) | 67.955 | Lego | UBS |
Wing Chi Holdings Ltd (6080 HK) | 51.00% | Chaoshang | Outside CCASS |
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