HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Over 15 years' experience in both finance and healthcare, covering clinic operations, investment and equity research in both China and overseas.

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276.CH) - Share Price Is at Risk of Correction

Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422.CH) - The Real Breakthrough Point in Valuation Is ADC Pipeline

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep29)- Henlius Privatization Update, NHSA Fee Control, Hansoh Is Exception

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276.CH) 23H1 - Has the Turning Point of Performance Really Arrived?

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.1) - Prioritize Big Pharma, Real Ownership of Pricing Power, Hengrui

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276.CH) 2022/23Q1 - The Situation Is Not as Optimistic as Imagined

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990.HK) - Once the Products Hit the Market, Good Story May Stop

Equity Bottom-Up

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Around RMB5 billion generic drugs would be included in VBP in 2024/2025 (e.g. sevoflurane/Ioversol/butorphanol tartrate). So, the assumption that all the negative effects of VBP have cleared up isn’t correct.</li>
<li>Hengrui’s innovative drugs would lose growth momentum after they reach peak sales. It’s difficult for Hengrui to maintain its scale expansion or achieve the over 20% YoY revenue growth.</li>
<li>Hengrui’s PE would fall below 30 (or even below 20) in the future, which means its valuation would start to enter a downward trend. Current high valuation cannot be justified.</li>
</ul>


Around RMB5 billion generic drugs would be included in VBP in 2024/2025 (e.g. sevoflurane/Ioversol/butorphanol tartrate). So, the assumption that all the negative effects of VBP have cleared up isn’t correct.
Hengrui’s innovative drugs would lose growth momentum after they reach peak sales. It’s difficult for Hengrui to maintain its scale expansion or achieve the over 20% YoY revenue growth.
Hengrui’s PE would fall below 30 (or even below 20) in the future, which means its valuation would start to enter a downward trend. Current high valuation cannot be justified.


Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276.CH) - More Downside Ahead; The Long Logic Doesn't Exist