'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

Former Japan Equity PM with over 30 of experience now providing database-driven analysis of the market, sectors, peer groups and stocks for LightStream Research.

Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, and the related Japan Analytics iPad App, we provide insights on companies are often ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on the market overall.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/​​​​​​05 Fuji, Weathernews, Create SD, Daikin, Coca Cola Japan

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/​​​​​​​06 -  SAN-A, AEON Mall, Consumer Electronics Retailers

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/​​​​​​​​07 Aeon Group, BS24, Welcia, JCR Pharma

DCM Does a Full Takeover of Shimachu - Looks Like a Strong Price. Look Again.

A New Era of Home Centre Consolidation Starts as DCM Buys Shimachu

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​29 - Home Centres <> Depāto, Sugi, Mitsubishi Materials, Koito

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Japan Consumer discretionary / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/163/118/original/2020-10-03_15-34-01.png?1601706874" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="163118"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>WARMING UP</strong> - Earnings momentum is finally on the 'up'. Our Interim Forecast/Revision Score data series which runs from March to September finished 2020 on a two-month high, while both the Annual series are above their September low points. The divergence between domestic non-manufacturing and globally-orientated manufacturing companies continues to widen exemplified by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a>'s announcement of their decision to pull out of Formula 1 from the end of the 2021 season. Although trailing earnings have also stabilised, operating and net income forecasts and their 'gap to trailing' continue to increase. The forward multiple is 32.5 times. </p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/163/261/original/2020-10-04_07-12-52.png?1601763187" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="163261"></figure><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p>
</div><div><p>Our best and worst pair is home centre <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimachu-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5235:1" rel="noopener">Shimachu (8184 JP)</a> for whom a rumoured bid from peer DCM has emerged and diaper machinery maker and small-cap value investor favourite and Unicharm proxy<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zuiko-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5568:1" rel="noopener"> Zuiko (6279 JP)</a>. </p></div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/163/135/original/2020-10-03_17-07-27.png?1601712488" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="163135"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/163/136/original/2020-10-03_17-08-41.png?1601712545" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="163136"></figure><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>18 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 56% Positive / 11% Neutral / 33% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> 0.0 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -9.6% Quarter YoY / -5.2% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -2.6ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 33%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>9 Annual • 6 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 33% Positive /22% Neutral / 44% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 50% Positive / 17% Neutral / 33% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -2.1 points</p></li>
</ul></div>


Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics
WARMING UP - Earnings momentum is finally on the 'up'. Our Interim Forecast/Revision Score data series which runs from March to September finished 2020 on a two-month high, while both the Annual series are above their September low points. The divergence between domestic non-manufacturing and globally-orientated manufacturing companies continues to widen exemplified by Honda Motor (7267 JP)'s announcement of their decision to pull out of Formula 1 from the end of the 2021 season. Although trailing earnings have also stabilised, operating and net income forecasts and their 'gap to trailing' continue to increase. The forward multiple is 32.5 times. 
• BEST &amp; WORST •
Our best and worst pair is home centre Shimachu (8184 JP) for whom a rumoured bid from peer DCM has emerged and diaper machinery maker and small-cap value investor favourite and Unicharm proxy Zuiko (6279 JP). DAILY STATS18 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 56% Positive / 11% Neutral / 33% Negative
Average Results Score Change: 0.0 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -9.6% Quarter YoY / -5.2% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.6ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 33%
9 Annual • 6 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 33% Positive /22% Neutral / 44% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 50% Positive / 17% Neutral / 33% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -2.1 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​02 DCM (Under)Bids for Shimachu, Zuiko>Unicharm, Ktk>Canon

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​02 DCM (Under)Bids for Shimachu, Zuiko>Unicharm, Ktk>Canon

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/02 DCM (Under)Bids for Shimachu, Zuiko>Unicharm, Ktk>Canon