'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

Former Japan Equity PM with over 30 of experience now providing database-driven analysis of the market, sectors, peer groups and stocks for LightStream Research.

Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, and the related Japan Analytics iPad App, we provide insights on companies are often ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on the market overall.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​09 - Yaskawa, MANI, OSG, JINS, Sakata Seed

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​12 - Cosmos, Kohnan Shoji, Hogy Medical, Inter Action

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​13 - Toho, Izumi, J Front Retailing, Koshidaka

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/​​​​​​​06 -  SAN-A, AEON Mall, Consumer Electronics Retailers

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​02 DCM (Under)Bids for Shimachu, Zuiko>Unicharm, Ktk>Canon

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/​​​​​​05 Fuji, Weathernews, Create SD, Daikin, Coca Cola Japan

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Japan Consumer discretionary / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p>
<p>The best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is call centre <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bell-system24-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27224:1" rel="noopener">Bell System24 (6183 JP)</a> and the very Overbought <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jcr-pharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20126:1" rel="noopener">JCR Pharmaceuticals (4552 JP)</a>.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/163/985/original/2020-10-08_05-56-30.png?1602104205" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="163985"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/163/986/original/2020-10-08_05-55-56.png?1602104228" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="163986"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>
<strong>AEON GROUP</strong> - Wednesday was 'Aeonday' as the majority of group companies reported, and a majority are still showing trailing losses. Parent Aeon's revenues were stable but trailing operating income is still declining at a double-digit rate, something the market is content to 'look through'. At 2.33 Aeon's Relative Price Score is close to a fifteen-year high; its PBR is twice that of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)</a> whose Residual Core Return is six times Aeon's. We would trade the 'pair'.</div><div></div><div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/163/987/original/2020-10-08_06-17-52.png?1602105492" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="163987"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/163/988/original/2020-10-08_06-22-24.png?1602105757" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="163988"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/163/989/original/2020-10-08_06-25-33.png?1602105947" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="163989"></figure><p></p>
</div><div>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>21 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 62% Positive / 10% Neutral / 28% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> +1.5 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> +8.2% Quarter YoY / +9.1% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -3.0ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 33%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>15 Annual • 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 47% Positive / 6% Neutral / 47% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 0% Positive / 0% Neutral / 100% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -6.8 point</p></li>
</ul></div>


• BEST &amp; WORST •
The best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is call centre Bell System24 (6183 JP) and the very Overbought JCR Pharmaceuticals (4552 JP).
Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics
AEON GROUP - Wednesday was 'Aeonday' as the majority of group companies reported, and a majority are still showing trailing losses. Parent Aeon's revenues were stable but trailing operating income is still declining at a double-digit rate, something the market is content to 'look through'. At 2.33 Aeon's Relative Price Score is close to a fifteen-year high; its PBR is twice that of Seven &amp; I (3382 JP) whose Residual Core Return is six times Aeon's. We would trade the 'pair'.



DAILY STATS
21 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 62% Positive / 10% Neutral / 28% Negative
Average Results Score Change: +1.5 points
Average % Change in Revenue: +8.2% Quarter YoY / +9.1% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -3.0ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 33%
15 Annual • 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 47% Positive / 6% Neutral / 47% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 0% Positive / 0% Neutral / 100% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -6.8 point


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/​​​​​​​​07 Aeon Group, BS24, Welcia, JCR Pharma

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/​​​​​​​​07 Aeon Group, BS24, Welcia, JCR Pharma

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/07 Aeon Group, BS24, Welcia, JCR Pharma