Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Nicholas Chia

Centennial Asia Advisors deliver timely and accurate economic and political analysis to investors, focused on anticipating key turning points that affect the client’s interests in the Asia-Pacific region. Clients include public agencies and central banks, as well as fund managers and investment banks. The company draws strength from its flexibility to tailor products to fit client’s specific interests. It provides detailed macro-economic forecasts, scenario analysis and timely assessments of how specific major economic and political developments may affect a client’s areas of interest. At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way.

Economist

India: Risks of A Sovereign Downgrade Are Overblown, Despite Moody's Warning

India Inflation: More To It Than Meets The Eye

India: Recovery Loses Steam Further in May

India: Still In Crisis Despite Signs that Infections Are Easing

India: Economy Runs into Speed Bumps in 2Q21

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

FX & Rates

<ul style="list-style-type: square;">
<li>The pandemic is easing, raising hopes for the recovery to regain momentum as lockdowns come off. The government is willing to countenance more stimulus, but the measures are likely to be more targeted at sectors hit hard by the lockdowns. Furthermore, there is very limited fiscal headroom for sweeping fiscal relief so more indirect measures will feature in the new relief bill, if it even materialises in the first place.</li>
<li>The government intends to dip into the capital markets for another INR1.6tr in additional borrowing, on top of the INR12tr it is budgeting to finance the budget deficit. This will seriously test the bond market's ability to take in such a deluge of borrowings in the near-term.</li>
<li>The RBI could expand and extend its G-SAP (i.e. QE) policy moving into 3Q21. But yields will come under pressure from the widening yield differentials with the US as well as the incoming deluge of borrowings. In turn, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22832:1" rel="noopener">INR (USDINR CURNCY)</a>'s rally is likely to hit a wall in the near-term after clawing back most of the losses it sustained in May - it is the best performing currency this month after rising 2.2% from April.</li>
</ul>


The pandemic is easing, raising hopes for the recovery to regain momentum as lockdowns come off. The government is willing to countenance more stimulus, but the measures are likely to be more targeted at sectors hit hard by the lockdowns. Furthermore, there is very limited fiscal headroom for sweeping fiscal relief so more indirect measures will feature in the new relief bill, if it even materialises in the first place.
The government intends to dip into the capital markets for another INR1.6tr in additional borrowing, on top of the INR12tr it is budgeting to finance the budget deficit. This will seriously test the bond market's ability to take in such a deluge of borrowings in the near-term.
The RBI could expand and extend its G-SAP (i.e. QE) policy moving into 3Q21. But yields will come under pressure from the widening yield differentials with the US as well as the incoming deluge of borrowings. In turn, the INR (USDINR CURNCY)'s rally is likely to hit a wall in the near-term after clawing back most of the losses it sustained in May - it is the best performing currency this month after rising 2.2% from April.


India: Limited Upside To Rally In Rupee Moving Forward

India Treasury

India: Limited Upside To Rally In Rupee Moving Forward