Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Nicholas Chia

Centennial Asia Advisors deliver timely and accurate economic and political analysis to investors, focused on anticipating key turning points that affect the client’s interests in the Asia-Pacific region. Clients include public agencies and central banks, as well as fund managers and investment banks. The company draws strength from its flexibility to tailor products to fit client’s specific interests. It provides detailed macro-economic forecasts, scenario analysis and timely assessments of how specific major economic and political developments may affect a client’s areas of interest. At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way.

Economist

India: Brace For A Sharp Snapback In Activity

India: PM Modi Reshuffles Cabinet, With An Eye On Sagging Popularity, and UP State Elections in 2022

India: Risks of A Sovereign Downgrade Are Overblown, Despite Moody's Warning

India: Limited Upside To Rally In Rupee Moving Forward

India: Recovery Loses Steam Further in May

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul style="list-style-type: square;">
<li>Core inflation leapt to a multi-year high in May, which is at odds with the desultory growth outlook and still-sizeable economic slack.</li>
<li>A closer examination of the inflation print suggests that lockdowns were partially responsible for rising prices. As they come off by July, this should provide some respite from stirring prices.</li>
<li>But that is not to say that prices will tail off sharply. Instead, other factors will keep prices pressures elevated – firm global goods inflation, Rupee <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22832:1" rel="noopener">INR (USDINR CURNCY)</a>  weakness, higher oil and CPO prices, etc. In turn, CPI inflation is more likely to remain tilted to the upper end of the RBI's target corridor (2%-6%).</li>
<li>This leaves the RBI in a pickle. If prices show no sign of moderating, the central bank will have to contemplate an earlier-than-envisaged tightening of monetary conditions from 4Q21.</li>
</ul>


Core inflation leapt to a multi-year high in May, which is at odds with the desultory growth outlook and still-sizeable economic slack.
A closer examination of the inflation print suggests that lockdowns were partially responsible for rising prices. As they come off by July, this should provide some respite from stirring prices.
But that is not to say that prices will tail off sharply. Instead, other factors will keep prices pressures elevated – firm global goods inflation, Rupee INR (USDINR CURNCY)  weakness, higher oil and CPO prices, etc. In turn, CPI inflation is more likely to remain tilted to the upper end of the RBI's target corridor (2%-6%).
This leaves the RBI in a pickle. If prices show no sign of moderating, the central bank will have to contemplate an earlier-than-envisaged tightening of monetary conditions from 4Q21.


India Inflation: More To It Than Meets The Eye