Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Unlike the consensus, we weren't surprised by the 8.2%YoY real GDP growth in Jul-Sep'25, as the sharp moderation in inflation dampened the GDP deflator too. </li>
<li>We retain our forecast of 9%YoY growth in Oct'25-Sep'26, led by stronger PCE after the cut in GST rates and likely boost to farm incomes from the strong monsoon-fed crop. </li>
<li>With CPI inflation far below the 2-6% RBI target, policy rates will need to steadily decline, boosting GFCF. We expect 8.5% RGDP growth in FY26, and 8.2% in FY27. </li>
</ul>


Unlike the consensus, we weren't surprised by the 8.2%YoY real GDP growth in Jul-Sep'25, as the sharp moderation in inflation dampened the GDP deflator too. 
We retain our forecast of 9%YoY growth in Oct'25-Sep'26, led by stronger PCE after the cut in GST rates and likely boost to farm incomes from the strong monsoon-fed crop. 
With CPI inflation far below the 2-6% RBI target, policy rates will need to steadily decline, boosting GFCF. We expect 8.5% RGDP growth in FY26, and 8.2% in FY27. 


India: 8.2%YoY Growth in Q2FY26; to Accelerate to 9%YoY in Oct'25-Sep'26

<ul>
<li>11%YoY growth in GFCF enabled real GDP to grow 7.6% YoY in Q2FY24, well ahead of the 6.8% consensus. Manufacturing, construction, utilities and mining grew over 10%YoY in Jul-Sep'23. </li>
<li>Services should grow over 8%YoY in H2FY24 (in line with 26-year average). Manufacturing should grow 9%YoY, delivering 8%+ growth in H2FY24. Reform and productivity enable 8% growth in FY25. </li>
<li>The 12mma of the fiscal deficit fell to 5.8% of GDP in Oct'23, and should fall to 5.5% by Mar'24. This will crowd-in private investment, generating virtuous circle of growth.</li>
</ul>


11%YoY growth in GFCF enabled real GDP to grow 7.6% YoY in Q2FY24, well ahead of the 6.8% consensus. Manufacturing, construction, utilities and mining grew over 10%YoY in Jul-Sep'23. 
Services should grow over 8%YoY in H2FY24 (in line with 26-year average). Manufacturing should grow 9%YoY, delivering 8%+ growth in H2FY24. Reform and productivity enable 8% growth in FY25. 
The 12mma of the fiscal deficit fell to 5.8% of GDP in Oct'23, and should fall to 5.5% by Mar'24. This will crowd-in private investment, generating virtuous circle of growth.


India: Real GDP to Sustain 8%+ YoY Growth over the Next 18 Months

<ul>
<li>CAD for H1FY26 (Apr-Sep'25) was 0.8% of GDP. Despite the continued expansion of the services surplus, we expect a CAD of 0.2% of GDP in FY26 as US tariffs bite. </li>
<li>The 12mma of the fiscal deficit was 4.6% of GDP in Oct'25. The 12mma of corporate tax revenue troughed in Feb'25, income tax revenue in Jul'25; both have since rebounded. </li>
<li>Despite the fiscal stimulus via GST rate reductions, the recovery in direct tax revenue will likely ensure the fiscal deficit target (4.4% of GDP) will be comfortably achieved. </li>
</ul>


CAD for H1FY26 (Apr-Sep'25) was 0.8% of GDP. Despite the continued expansion of the services surplus, we expect a CAD of 0.2% of GDP in FY26 as US tariffs bite. 
The 12mma of the fiscal deficit was 4.6% of GDP in Oct'25. The 12mma of corporate tax revenue troughed in Feb'25, income tax revenue in Jul'25; both have since rebounded. 
Despite the fiscal stimulus via GST rate reductions, the recovery in direct tax revenue will likely ensure the fiscal deficit target (4.4% of GDP) will be comfortably achieved. 


India Twin Deficit Watch: CAD Shrinking to 0.2% of GDP, Fiscal Deficit Back on Target

<ul>
<li>RBI's MPC cut 25bp as expected, but it remains behind the curve, with the real policy rate now excessively high at +5%. RBI inflation forecasts were and remain too high. </li>
<li>Food deflation is likely to be shortlived, with vegetable prices rising MoM since May'25. But all other food and non-food inflation components are moderating, and GST cuts impart further disinflation. </li>
<li>We expect inflation to be 1.8%YoY in Q4FY26 (vs RBI's 2.9%YoY forecast), 2.3% and 2.5% in Q1 and Q2FY27, so expect another 75bp reduction in repo rate by Aug'26. </li>
</ul>


RBI's MPC cut 25bp as expected, but it remains behind the curve, with the real policy rate now excessively high at +5%. RBI inflation forecasts were and remain too high. 
Food deflation is likely to be shortlived, with vegetable prices rising MoM since May'25. But all other food and non-food inflation components are moderating, and GST cuts impart further disinflation. 
We expect inflation to be 1.8%YoY in Q4FY26 (vs RBI's 2.9%YoY forecast), 2.3% and 2.5% in Q1 and Q2FY27, so expect another 75bp reduction in repo rate by Aug'26. 


India: RBI Cuts 25bp but the Real Policy Rate Is Still Too High at +5%

<ul>
<li>Spurred by 50bp of rate cuts in Feb-Apr'25, real GDP accelerated to 7.8%YoY in Q1FY26, with GFCF rebounding to 7.8%YoY growth. On the production side, services grew a stellar 9.3%YoY. </li>
<li>The additional 50bp cut in Jun'25 will boost growth in Q2FY26, while an effective 2ppYoY reduction in GST rates will spur consumption and sharply reduce H2FY26 CPI inflation to 1%.</li>
<li>Over the Oct'25-Sep'26 period, the 100bp cut in repo rate and CRR, and 2ppYoY decline in GST, is likely to provide a 2pp kicker to RGDP, enabling 9% growth. </li>
</ul>


Spurred by 50bp of rate cuts in Feb-Apr'25, real GDP accelerated to 7.8%YoY in Q1FY26, with GFCF rebounding to 7.8%YoY growth. On the production side, services grew a stellar 9.3%YoY. 
The additional 50bp cut in Jun'25 will boost growth in Q2FY26, while an effective 2ppYoY reduction in GST rates will spur consumption and sharply reduce H2FY26 CPI inflation to 1%.
Over the Oct'25-Sep'26 period, the 100bp cut in repo rate and CRR, and 2ppYoY decline in GST, is likely to provide a 2pp kicker to RGDP, enabling 9% growth. 


India: After 7.8%YoY in Q1, Monetary & Fiscal Stimulus to Ensure 9% RGDP Growth

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India: 8.2%YoY Growth in Q2FY26; to Accelerate to 9%YoY in Oct'25-Sep'26

Expect real GDP growth of 8.5% in FY26 and 8.2% in FY27 as 2pp lower GST and strong farm incomes boost private consumption, while low inflation...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Real GDP to Sustain 8%+ YoY Growth over the Next 18 Months

India stays world's fastest-growing economy with 7.7%YoY RGDP growth in H1FY24. Exports & GFCF will enable >8%YoY growth in H2. Labour reform to...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India Twin Deficit Watch: CAD Shrinking to 0.2% of GDP, Fiscal Deficit Back on Target

CAD likely to shrink to 0.2% of GDP in FY26 as US tariffs bite, offsetting larger services surplus. With corporate tax revenue rebounding from...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: RBI Cuts 25bp but the Real Policy Rate Is Still Too High at +5%

RBI cut rates 25bp but remains behind the curve, as its inflation forecasts were and remain too high. We expect another 75bp of rate cuts by...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: After 7.8%YoY in Q1, Monetary & Fiscal Stimulus to Ensure 9% RGDP Growth

100bp rate and CRR cuts and 2ppYoY GST reduction expected to drive strong economic growth in India, with RGDP accelerating from 7.8% YoY in Q1FY26...

Prasenjit K. Basu

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

India: 8.2%YoY Growth in Q2FY26; to Accelerate to 9%YoY in Oct'25-Sep'26

​Expect real GDP growth of 8.5% in FY26 and 8.2% in FY27 as 2pp lower GST and strong farm incomes boost private consumption, while low inflation...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Real GDP to Sustain 8%+ YoY Growth over the Next 18 Months

India stays world's fastest-growing economy with 7.7%YoY RGDP growth in H1FY24. Exports & GFCF will enable >8%YoY growth in H2. Labour reform to...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India Twin Deficit Watch: CAD Shrinking to 0.2% of GDP, Fiscal Deficit Back on Target

​CAD likely to shrink to 0.2% of GDP in FY26 as US tariffs bite, offsetting larger services surplus. With corporate tax revenue rebounding from...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: RBI Cuts 25bp but the Real Policy Rate Is Still Too High at +5%

​RBI cut rates 25bp but remains behind the curve, as its inflation forecasts were and remain too high. We expect another 75bp of rate cuts by...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: After 7.8%YoY in Q1, Monetary & Fiscal Stimulus to Ensure 9% RGDP Growth

​100bp rate and CRR cuts and 2ppYoY GST reduction expected to drive strong economic growth in India, with RGDP accelerating from 7.8% YoY in Q1FY26...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Expect real GDP growth of 8.5% in FY26 and 8.2% in FY27 as 2pp lower GST and strong farm incomes boost private consumption, while low inflation...

CAD likely to shrink to 0.2% of GDP in FY26 as US tariffs bite, offsetting larger services surplus. With corporate tax revenue rebounding from...

RBI cut rates 25bp but remains behind the curve, as its inflation forecasts were and remain too high. We expect another 75bp of rate cuts by...

100bp rate and CRR cuts and 2ppYoY GST reduction expected to drive strong economic growth in India, with RGDP accelerating from 7.8% YoY in Q1FY26...